Global Macro Digest

Inflation Data Beats Estimates

• 🔥 February PPI rose +0.7% m/m versus +0.3% estimate and +0.5% prior; core +0.5% m/m versus +0.3% estimate.
• NY...

NY Fed Services Sector PMI ticked up slightly in March but remained in contraction and hasn’t broken its downtrend over the past couple years. This underscores ongoing services weakness and softer US growth momentum.

GBP/USD rallies 150 pips to 1.3372 amid elevated volatility (daily ATR 112 pips) from Iran-driven oil >$100 and CB divergence: Fed pauses at...

• Fed holds firm: Rates steady at 3.50%-3.75% amid US-Iran conflict and oil-driven inflation.
• Oil surges: Nears $110/bbl on threats to Middle East...

Mortgage rates edged lower this morning after climbing to multi-month highs earlier in the week, with mixed economic indicators in play on Fed decision day. Signals bond market repricing with housing implications.

February PPI jumped +0.7% m/m vs. +0.3% est. and +0.5% prior, while core rose +0.5% m/m vs. +0.3% est. and +0.8% prior—flagging ongoing price pressures that could delay Fed easing.

Key depleted measures:

• SPR release: 172M barrels tapped last week as part of IEA's record 400M-barrel stock release.
• Russian oil waiver: One-month...

• Analyst optimism: Morgan Stanley holds June rate cut view despite crude >$100/barrel.
• Fed hawkishness: Signals no cuts this year on Wednesday,...

Oil prices have surged past $100/bbl as conflict disrupts global supply, topping levels last seen in the 2022 Russia-Ukraine shock and signaling long-term pain for US drivers.

Sovereign bond issuance hit record levels in 2025 per OECD and is poised to stay near highs in 2026, amplifying global debt risks as rates remain elevated.

Central Bank Expectations

• 🔥 Market generally believes FOMC rate cut may have to wait until October with a high bar for further cuts.
• Fed is...

US Treasury yields surging now, driven by sticky inflation and deficits.

• Bond market signaling vs. Fed, questioning control over long-term rates.
  -...

• Fed pauses: Market sees low chance of FOMC cut tomorrow, possibly waiting until October with high bar for further easing.
• RBA accelerates: Set for...

• Bond repricing: Oil surge edges Germany's 10Y yield to 2.95%, near October highs.
• EM FX pressure: Rupee hits record Rs 92.40/USD on rising oil and...

Escalating tensions: Iran drone hits UAE's Shah gas field, first attack on Gulf production infra, deepening Hormuz closure.

Oil surges: WTI at...

• Surface downgrade: Q4 US GDP cut to 0.7% annualized from 1.4%, signaling headline weakness.
• Core strength: PCE, business investment, and...

The Fed meets this week and is widely expected to hold rates steady, marking its second pause of the year—potentially signaling how long high rates persist.

US Macro Data Releases

• 🔥 BEA revised Q4 2025 US GDP growth down to 0.7% annualized.
• 🔥 Core PCE inflation rose 3.1% Y/Y in January, hotter...

US core PCE inflation rose to 3.1% Y/Y in January, a touch hotter than expected. Ex-food/energy measure gained +0.4% M/M, matching consensus.

Canadian economy flashes warnings: 84,000 jobs lost in Feb, unemployment hits 6.7%.

• Inflation cools to 1.8%, below expectations, softening price...