China: US approvals secured H200 for top firms; new gaming chip ban
Key Questions
What progress has Nvidia made on H200 approvals for China?
Nvidia secured US approvals for H200 sales to about 10 top Chinese firms, but zero units have been delivered so far. This leaves $17-28B in inventory with no China data center revenue currently recognized.
What did Jensen Huang say about Nvidia's China outlook?
Jensen Huang stated to 'expect nothing' on the China gamble and reaffirmed that China remains 'very important' to Nvidia. He noted the $200B Vera CPU market forecast includes China.
What new restrictions has Beijing imposed on Nvidia products?
Beijing banned the RTX 5090D V2 gaming chip during the Trump-Xi summit period. This adds to hurdles even as H200 licenses were granted.
How much indirect revenue does Nvidia generate from China via other regions?
Indirect revenue through Singapore and Malaysia is estimated at up to $10B potential. This provides a partial offset to direct China data center sales being near zero.
Is Nvidia still betting on long-term access to the China AI market?
Yes, Jensen Huang expects the China market for US AI chips to open 'over time' and views the $200B CPU opportunity as including China. Former Goldman Sachs executives also see the China story as unfinished.
What challenges remain for Nvidia in repurposing unsold China chips?
Unsold AI chips face a potential enterprise GPU glut as data centers seek profitability with next-gen hardware. This raises questions on inventory management.
How has China's share of Nvidia's data center revenue changed?
China revenue collapsed from 20% of data center sales to low single digits after US export restrictions. Licensed H200 access is expected to recover some of this gradually.
What competitive moves is Alibaba making against Nvidia in China?
Alibaba released a new AI chip claimed to be 3x more powerful and has delivered 560,000 chips to over 400 customers. This intensifies the China tech war amid Nvidia's export battles.
H200 approvals ~10 firms/zero delivered; $17-28B inventory; zero China DC revenue. Jensen 'expect nothing' on China gamble. Beijing banned RTX 5090D V2. Jensen reaffirms China 'very important', H200 licensed, Vera CPU $200B market includes China; indirect revenue via Singapore/Malaysia ~$10B potential.