AI valuations 15x+ bifurcate: Anthropic $200B forecast, Decart $7B, SpaceX-Cursor closed, Stripe-Advent PayPal bid, Workday $51B talks, Stripe-OpenRouter $7B, Weave take-private at 2.7x, H1 2026 data
Key Questions
What IPO activity is occurring in AI?
OpenAI filed a confidential S-1, while Anthropic and SpaceX pursue IPOs. SpaceX's $60B all-stock deal for Cursor values it at 23x ARR.
How are Big Tech investments affecting AI valuations?
Meta invested $15B for 49% of Scale AI, with Anthropic nearing $1T valuation amid $250B concentrated funding. Circular funding like MSFT's OpenAI backlog raises fragility concerns.
What is the status of the Stripe-PayPal deal?
Stripe and Advent reportedly bid $53B to take PayPal private, marking a major fintech deal with noted antitrust risks. Payments M&A is accelerating with networks like Mastercard active.
How are SaaS valuations evolving?
SaaS multiples recovered to 4.7x from 3.9x, though M&A pace remains low with wide dispersion. AI disruption has reduced PE software buyouts by 43% YoY.
What other major AI M&A deals were reported?
Qualcomm confirmed a $8-10B Tenstorrent deal, while Capital One acquired Brex for $5.15B. OpenRouter received billion-dollar acquisition offers from tech giants.
Anthropic nears $1T valuation with $200B 2028 revenue forecast; Decart acquisition at $6B in shares. SpaceX $60B Cursor acquisition closed. Stripe-Advent $53B PayPal take-private bid advances after initial $60.50/share offer rejected. Silver Lake in talks for ~$51B Workday acquisition; analyst downgrade on limited Flex Credit adoption challenges buyout thesis. Stripe seals $7B OpenRouter acquisition (5x valuation jump in 3 months). Weave to go private in $650M sale to Francisco Partners at 2.7x revenue – signals ongoing valuation reset for mid-cap SaaS. AI IPO race: SpaceX, OpenAI, Anthropic. Meta $15B for 49% of Scale AI. EA $55B take-private. H1 2026: SaaS multiples drop to 3.4x median EV/revenue; record global deal value despite lower volume; shift toward AI/cybersecurity deals. AI valuations 15-60x.