AI valuations remain extreme as SaaS and take-private multiples reset
Key Questions
What IPO activity is occurring in AI?
OpenAI filed a confidential S-1, while Anthropic and SpaceX pursue IPOs. SpaceX's $60B all-stock deal for Cursor values it at 23x ARR.
How are Big Tech investments affecting AI valuations?
Meta invested $15B for 49% of Scale AI, with Anthropic nearing $1T valuation amid $250B concentrated funding. Circular funding like MSFT's OpenAI backlog raises fragility concerns.
What is the status of the Stripe-PayPal deal?
Stripe and Advent reportedly bid $53B to take PayPal private, marking a major fintech deal with noted antitrust risks. Payments M&A is accelerating with networks like Mastercard active.
How are SaaS valuations evolving?
SaaS multiples recovered to 4.7x from 3.9x, though M&A pace remains low with wide dispersion. AI disruption has reduced PE software buyouts by 43% YoY.
What other major AI M&A deals were reported?
Qualcomm confirmed a $8-10B Tenstorrent deal, while Capital One acquired Brex for $5.15B. OpenRouter received billion-dollar acquisition offers from tech giants.
AI infrastructure and application assets continue to command roughly 15x-60x revenue multiples, while H1 2026 median SaaS EV/revenue fell to 3.4%. Salesforce's reported potential Listen Labs acquisition at roughly 67x revenue contrasts with PayPal's Weave take-private at 2.7x, underscoring a sharply bifurcated market.