US-China Trade War on Optical Modules: FCC Ban and Geopolitical Supply Chain Risk

FCC likely to ban Chinese-made optical transceivers for US data centers, a major policy signal that directly impacts supply chain planning. Hyperscalers can secure non-Chinese supply, but enterprises/colos face price spikes and delays. Stock rallies across AAOI, Coherent, Lumentum confirm market pricing this in. This reinforces the InP bottleneck narrative and adds urgency to vendor diversification. AAOI's MBE advantage (75% fewer lasers per module) and $124M+$200M orders from hyperscalers (likely Amazon) position it as key beneficiary; Texas fab expansion to 600k sq ft. Geopolitical risk intensifies: US plans to ban Chinese modules, stock rallies across AAOI, Lumentum, Coherent. This adds a new dimension to supply chain planning and vendor diversification.