Amhara and Oromia Insurgencies
Key Questions
What alliance is forming between Sudan and Eritrea?
Sudan’s al-Burhan met Eritrea’s Isaias in Asmara, deepening ties. This is viewed as part of a hostile alliance involving Sudan, Eritrea, and the TPLF, according to PM Abiy.
How is TPLF involved in Sudan's conflict?
TPLF's Army 70 is fighting alongside EDF and SAF against RSF, indicating Eritrea is using Tigrayan forces against Ethiopia's interests. Cross-border recruitment from Tigray into Sudan's war is confirmed.
What impact is the Sudan war having on Ethiopia?
Sudan accuses Ethiopia of cutting electricity exports, worsening its power crisis. Refugee flows are reversing, with Ethiopian refugees in Sudan facing shrinking aid and fears of cross-border killings.
Are there external powers involved in the Sudan-Eritrea dynamics?
Cairo is pushing for US-Eritrea rapprochement to strengthen the anti-Ethiopia axis. Saudi training camps in Somalia and possible French involvement via Chad add external dimensions to the conflict.
What recent accusations involve chemical weapons or trafficking?
RSF accused SAF of using chemical weapons in Sudan, per EEPA reports. A human trafficking network bust involving 40k people may be linked to cross-border recruitment activities.
Fano's insurgency remains persistent and geographically dispersed, with fighting reported across more than 16 localities in eight Amhara zones, while violence extends into western Oromia. Claims of an ENDF setback in North Wollo and mass killings in East Wollega remain incompletely verified; reported government–OLA tactical coordination and failed OLA talks suggest shifting alignments without demonstrating a unified rebel coalition.