Amhara and Oromia Insurgencies
Key Questions
What alliance is forming between Sudan and Eritrea?
Sudan’s al-Burhan met Eritrea’s Isaias in Asmara, deepening ties. This is viewed as part of a hostile alliance involving Sudan, Eritrea, and the TPLF, according to PM Abiy.
How is TPLF involved in Sudan's conflict?
TPLF's Army 70 is fighting alongside EDF and SAF against RSF, indicating Eritrea is using Tigrayan forces against Ethiopia's interests. Cross-border recruitment from Tigray into Sudan's war is confirmed.
What impact is the Sudan war having on Ethiopia?
Sudan accuses Ethiopia of cutting electricity exports, worsening its power crisis. Refugee flows are reversing, with Ethiopian refugees in Sudan facing shrinking aid and fears of cross-border killings.
Are there external powers involved in the Sudan-Eritrea dynamics?
Cairo is pushing for US-Eritrea rapprochement to strengthen the anti-Ethiopia axis. Saudi training camps in Somalia and possible French involvement via Chad add external dimensions to the conflict.
What recent accusations involve chemical weapons or trafficking?
RSF accused SAF of using chemical weapons in Sudan, per EEPA reports. A human trafficking network bust involving 40k people may be linked to cross-border recruitment activities.
Fano remains active in Amhara, while armed violence and abductions continue in Oromia; claims of Fano advances and a Fano–TPLF–OLA alliance remain unverified. Moyale reports cite a flag dispute as the trigger for Somali–Oromia regional-force clashes, with over 2,000 people reportedly fleeing into Kenya and nine deaths; AFP could not independently verify the toll, and the cause and current security situation remain unclear.