Government Forces Consolidate Tigray Positions as War Shifts Toward Insurgency

The federal government says federal-aligned forces control Mekelle and large areas of Tigray, but control claims remain contested as renewed fighting, alleged drone strikes and weapons seizures are reported. TPLF-linked withdrawals have not produced durable control; continued clashes and Debretsion Gebremichael’s guerrilla-war warning point to fragmented control and possible insurgency.