US-China export controls + rare-earths + chip regulation + AI model restrictions + EV supply chain + Big Tech antitrust
Key Questions
What new US export control measures are being considered?
Lawmakers are pushing to close the foundry-rule loophole, Taiwan may criminalize AI chip smuggling, and the MATCH Act is extended. The RASA bill adds further regulatory tail risk for AI models.
How are China's rare earth controls affecting supply chains?
Export curbs have driven eightfold price surges in dysprosium and terbium, threatening EV motors and defense sectors. Yttrium is now seen as a critical chokepoint for chip production.
What is the impact of the EU's DMA fine on Google?
The EU imposed an €890M fine on Google for self-preferencing in Play Store and search, its first under DMA rules. This adds to €10.38B in total EU penalties and may lead to settlement talks.
How is Huawei performing despite US restrictions?
Huawei chip revenue jumped 60% to $12B, challenging the effectiveness of export controls. China is weighing its own AI model and chip export limits in response.
What EV battery supply chain shifts are occurring?
China is ending EV battery tax breaks (2-4% consumption tax from Sep 2026), while Gotion secured $114M for Morocco's first gigafactory. US-Japan critical minerals deals aim to diversify away from China.
Which countries are emerging as transit or production hubs?
Japan is becoming a transit point for Russian tech, Oregon received $160M for semiconductor R&D, and Morocco is positioned as China's bridgehead into Europe's EV market.
What antitrust actions target Big Tech?
Apple and DOJ are in early settlement talks, UK regulators will oversee AWS, Google Cloud, Microsoft, and Oracle as Critical Third Parties, and EU privacy-antitrust guidelines are being unified.
How are export bans affecting Chinese AI firms?
The White House accused Moonshot AI of accessing Nvidia GB300s in Thailand, while the US restricts access to Anthropic models. Capability gaps between US and Chinese models are narrowing to months.
Export controls escalate: U.S. lawmakers pushing to close foundry-rule loophole; Taiwan considering criminalizing AI chip smuggling; MATCH Act extended; EU Pax Silica; Netherlands lobbying on ASML curbs. Commerce signals new AI/semiconductor rules. China imposes helium export ban. Anthropic's national security head urges tighter controls. ASML's China exposure (20% of 2026 sales) is key risk. CXMT IPO challenges memory incumbents. Japan emerges as transit hub for Russian tech. Colorado expands sales tax to SaaS. Michigan AG leads 20-state coalition urging feds to deny bank charters to high-risk fintechs. Apple and DOJ in early antitrust settlement talks. EU hits Google with record €890M fine under DMA for Play store and search self-preferencing—first DMA fine, adds to €10.38B total EU penalties. EU regulators unify privacy and antitrust enforcement with joint guidelines. UK regulators to oversee AWS, Google Cloud, Microsoft, Oracle as Critical Third Parties. CIA directly probing G42's China ties. China weighs export controls on its own AI models and chips. US restricts access to Anthropic AI models. US-Japan critical minerals expansion (tariff-free lithium, cobalt, nickel) strengthens EV battery supply chain diversification. White House accuses Moonshot AI of accessing Nvidia GB300s in Thailand despite export ban; RASA bill in Senate adds regulatory tail risk. Detailed legal analysis of US vs Chinese AI model export controls—capability gap now months, not years. China ends EV battery tax breaks (2% consumption tax on Li-ion from Sep 2026, rising to 4% in 2027), solid-state stays exempt—margin pressure on automakers. Oregon awarded $160M federal grant for semiconductor R&D via FAST consortium. China's rare earth export controls drive eightfold price surge in dysprosium/terbium, threatening EV motor and defense supply chains. China retaliates against EU Russia sanctions with export controls on 14 European entities (Tatra Trucks, Lafert, Sindlhauser, Cavok)—escalates tech supply-chain fragmentation. New: Huawei chip revenue jumps 60% to $12B despite US export controls—challenges effectiveness of restrictions. Yttrium identified as 'killer chokepoint' for chip production, causing panic among defense and semiconductor companies. Gotion lands $114M AfDB loan for Morocco's first EV battery gigafactory—supply chain diversification into Africa.