Memory upcycle: HBM sold out, Micron record, Samsung HBM4E, DDR4 comeback, GDDR7 market, CXMT IPO disrupts, SanDisk surge
Key Questions
What is the status of HBM supply through 2027?
HBM is sold out through 2027 due to strong AI demand. Micron reported record Q3 FY2026 revenue of $41.5B with 85% margins and a $100B SCA book for HBM4.
How did Micron's stock react to recent news?
Micron stock fell 14% on fears from CXMT's IPO despite its strong results. UBS still picked the stock after the 30% drop, citing the memory supercycle.
What moves are Samsung and SK Hynix making in HBM?
Samsung is pushing its HBM4E gambit after a 10% drop on pricing concerns. SK Hynix slumped 13% after US IPO euphoria but benefits from Apple's Mac overhaul creating memory demand.
What is CXMT's IPO and market strategy?
CXMT debuted with an $8.6B IPO and an aggressive DRAM roadmap targeting 11% bit share by 2028, including HBM3E for Huawei.
How is SanDisk performing in the memory market?
SanDisk stock is up 574% YTD with BiCS8 advantages offering 15-19% density gains and 13% power savings. It holds a $42B contract backlog with floor pricing at $0.29/GB.
What analyst concerns exist around AI inferencing memory?
An analyst cut SanDisk's price target due to uncertainty in the AI inferencing memory hierarchy. KV cache offloading versus DRAM/HBM could swing enterprise SSD demand.
How does Tesla's demand affect memory suppliers?
Elon Musk thanked Micron on Tesla's earnings call, signaling ongoing memory supply pressure for the AI ramp.
What is the overall narrative for the memory supercycle?
Micron saw 345% revenue surge with HBM sold out through 2027. Korean semis show V-shaped recovery while Apple Mac overhaul reinforces demand for SK Hynix and Samsung.
HBM sold out through 2027; Micron Q3 FY2026 record revenue $41.5B, 85% margin, HBM4 $1B+ with $100B SCA book, but stock down 14% on CXMT IPO fears. SK Hynix slumps 13% after US IPO euphoria. Samsung -10% on HBM pricing concerns, now pushing HBM4E gambit. CXMT debuts with $8.6B IPO, aggressive DRAM roadmap targeting 11% bit share by 2028, HBM3E for Huawei. UBS picks Micron after 30% drop. Korean semis V-recovery. Apple Mac overhaul creates memory crunch benefiting SK Hynix/Samsung. Memory supercycle narrative reinforced: Micron 345% revenue surge, HBM sold out through 2027, ADR premium risk noted. SanDisk stock up 574% YTD, BiCS8 advantages (15-19% density, 13% power savings), $42B contract backlog with floor pricing ($0.29/GB), Q4 earnings Aug 5, Investor Day Aug 13. SanDisk analyst cuts PT on AI inferencing memory hierarchy uncertainty—KV cache offloading vs DRAM/HBM could swing enterprise SSD demand. Tesla's Musk thanks Micron on earnings call, signaling memory supply pressure for AI ramp.