Aluminium Asia Outlook

China Pricing and Investment Signals

• 🔥 Citi Target for Chalco: Citi sets HK$17.08 target for Aluminum Corporation of China, viewing recent...

Fitch sees supply tightness boosting low-cost APAC smelters.

• China spot prices weakening, trading at 60-80 yuan/mt discount to SHFE.
• Citi views...

US carbon border proposals expose a direct trade-off between aluminium supply security and decarbonisation objectives, with clear implications for global trade flows.

LME Pricing Movements

• 🔥 LME Aluminium Price Drop: LME Aluminium cash prices slid to three-week lows and settled at $3,498.50/t.
• Price...

A US-Iran framework deal easing supply fears sparked immediate selloffs in aluminium.

• LME action: Prices plunged below $3500/t to three-week lows...

China's carbon market expansion to aluminium alongside steel and cement now covers 60–65% of emissions, heightening cost pressures and ESG compliance demands for the sector.

Aluminum edged higher as investors weighed long-term supply limitations despite booming Chinese production.

Pricing Reactions

• 🔥 LME Price Drop: London aluminum futures fell over 3% to $3,426/ton following the US-Iran deal.

Supply Developments

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Chinese aluminium output keeps climbing, adding fresh supply even as an Iran deal lifts market optimism.

• Production growth: May output rose 1.7%...

India's aluminium can market is expanding, but the bigger opportunity lies in domestic can sheet production as the country already produces more than 4 million tonnes of aluminium annually.

Price Movements

• 🔥 LME Aluminium Cash Prices: LME Aluminium cash prices settled at a three-week low of $3498.50/t on 11 June 2026 after coming...

Primary aluminium supply tightens due to Persian Gulf disruptions, pushing manufacturers to turn to scrap and recycled aluminium as a strategic alternative. This accelerates recycling's role beyond its origins as a green initiative.

LME aluminium cash prices slid to three-week lows at $3,498.50/t on 11 June 2026, down sharply from the four-year peak of $3,795.50/t. This pullback signals potential near-term volatility amid shifting dynamics.

Fitch upgraded Vedanta Resources to 'BB' on aluminium and metals prices running 18% above prior estimates, with aluminium at USD3,300/tonne. Sustained strength is clearly improving credit profiles for key Asian producers.

LME aluminium's June 10 price decline reveals demand weakness through futures curves, inventory shifts, and Asian benchmarks.

LME Aluminium Price Declines

• 🔥 June 10 Weakness: LME aluminium prices showed a weaker trend on June 10 with declines across cash, three-month...

• India ramps up: Total aluminium supply (primary + secondary) expanding at 3.3% CAGR
• China's exports surge: Shipments of aluminium products rose...

• Alcoa's market view: Aluminium futures fell up to 2.2% to $3,471 per ton on June 10, the lowest since late 2025
• LME contract details: Cash,...

Aluminium Price Outlook

• 🔥 Firm Prices Expected: Axis Securities forecasts aluminium prices will stay firm due to supply constraints and market...

China's aluminium exports are filling the gap left by Middle East disruptions from the Iran conflict, which slashed Gulf output 35% YoY to 330,000...