Global EV sales mixed; BNEF forecasts 25% share in 2026
Key Questions
How have US EV sales performed recently compared to used EVs?
New EV sales in the US are down 22% year-over-year, while used EV sales are up 25%. Tesla's market share has also dropped below 50% for the first time.
What drove the increase in European EV sales?
Europe saw EV sales rise 38%, with BEVs up 39% in May to reach 24% market share, fueled by fuel price spikes from the Iran war. New vehicle registrations in the EU rose 4% in the first five months of 2026.
What is China's current NEV market share and growth?
China achieved a record 62% NEV share, underscoring its dominance in global EV adoption amid strong emerging market trends.
What are BNEF's forecasts for global EV sales in 2026 and 2030?
BNEF forecasts a 25% global EV share in 2026 with 23 million passenger EV sales, up 11% year-over-year, though the 2030 forecast was cut to 35.6 million due to US policy uncertainty.
How is Tesla adjusting production at Giga Berlin?
Tesla is boosting Berlin output to 7,500 cars weekly in October and adding 1,000 workers to meet recovering European demand, up from around 5,000-6,200 vehicles per week previously.
Which markets are showing strong EV growth outside major regions?
Brazil's EV market is up 153%, and India's is growing 8.2% month-over-month with Tata leading at 39% share. These emerging markets are accelerating global adoption.
What factors are influencing US EV sales projections?
US sales are projected to fall 19% due to policy rollbacks, contributing to BNEF's reduced long-term forecasts. Incentives remain at 14% of average transaction prices as prices decline for the 11th month.
When is the global peak in oil demand expected according to forecasts?
Oil demand is expected to peak by 2029, aligning with rising EV adoption projected to reach 25% global share by 2026.
US new EV sales down 22% YoY but used up 25%. Europe up 38% (BEVs up 39% in May, 24% share) on Iran war fuel spikes. China NEV share 62% record. Brazil up 153%. India EV market growing 8.2% MoM, Tata leads 39%. BNEF forecasts 25% global EV share in 2026, 23M passenger EV sales (+11% YoY) but cuts 2030 forecast to 35.6M due to US policy uncertainty. US sales projected to fall 19% due to policy rollback. Oil demand peak by 2029. EV prices declining 11th consecutive month. Incentives at 14% of ATP. Tesla share drops below 50% in US for first time.