OPEC Market Pulse

Massive supply hit rocks oil markets:

• OPEC crude fell 7.56M bpd in March to 22M bpd, steepest drop since 1989 due to Strait of Hormuz shutdown from...

• Symbolic action: OPEC+ plans to raise production quotas for May as a symbolic move.
• Real limits: Middle East conflict constrains production and...

OPEC+ faces a three-lever trap tomorrow on the previously agreed 206,000 b/d production increase: proceed, hold, reverse, or abandon the framework—key for traders eyeing oil swings.

Hormuz geo-disruption trumps OPEC+ plans – key trading signals:

• Massive export hit: ~11 mln bpd lost daily
• OPEC production declining per surveys
  -...

OPEC Production Declines

• 🔥 Output Lowest Since 2020: OPEC oil output shrinks to lowest since 2020, with total crude oil production plummeting...

Key shifts (week ending Mar 27):

• Inventories up 1.2%
• Imports down 10k bpd to 6.45 mbpd
• Exports up 199k bpd to 3.52 mbpd

Bearish counter-signal to global tightness for short-term WTI trades.

OPEC+ supply crunch intensifies from Gulf woes:

• Output plunge: Crude fell 7.3M bpd from February to 21.57M bpd, lowest since 2020, via Strait of...

• Cross-validated collapse: OPEC at 21.57M bpd in March, down 7.2-7.3M bpd MoM, lowest since June 2020.
• Key cuts: Iraq to 1.4M (-2.75M), Kuwait to...

Oil plunged nearly 3% in choppy Thursday trading after OPEC+ ended meeting without output decision – immediate bearish signal for traders watching production quotas.

• WTI trading at $101-102/bbl, poised for $102 breach
• Hormuz risks trigger $150 super-spike potential
• Powell and OPEC+ decide next move amid volatility
  Watch Hormuz for bullish surge overriding OPEC+.

Oil Price Reactions

• 🔥 Oil prices are higher on Thursday with Brent crude at $99.65 per barrel up 2.4% and WTI at $92.94 per barrel up 2.9% amid...

Key trading implications from Iran tensions:

• Brent up 2.4% to $99.65, WTI +2.9% to $92.94 on escalation fears despite US pause
• Iraq cuts Basra...

Strategic cracks threaten Saudi, UAE, Kuwait oil stability amid war:

• Export dependence exposed: Strait flows down 60%; Saudi reroutes 4mbpd via...

Short-term bullish for WTI/gasoline futures: May WTI closed +4.79%, RBOB +5.82% on Middle East conflict fears.

• Key trigger: WSJ reports US eyes...

Key supply implications for oil traders:

• Massive drawdown: 32 countries release 412M barrels over 4 months (late March 2026 start), US 172M – adds...

Day-trading alert: OPEC+ bombshell output hike of 411,000 bpd ignites supply glut fears amid weak demand.

• WTI sinks $2.21 (3.8%) to $56.08
• Brent drops $2.14 to $59.15
• Shift to market share chase after years of cuts; watch for further downside.

Iran's oil output has fallen 70% to ~900 kb/d from 3.3 million bpd, per Ministry of Petroleum statements, as ground war fears rise on day 21. Key supply shock signal for oil traders.

• One-month license: Trump admin lifts sanctions on Iranian oil stranded at sea until April 19
• Explicit goal: Use this oil to bring down soaring prices
• Trader watch: Temporary supply boost could ease oil market tightness

Brent at $107.40/bbl (down $6.31 today), balancing Iran escalation boosting prices against bearish OPEC output.

• Bullish geo angle: Iran attacks and...

OPEC+ surprised markets by announcing a larger-than-expected 548,000 bpd production increase for August, exceeding analysts' predictions. Key watch for traders eyeing near-term supply pressure.