How investors are pricing war risk, oil shocks, and rare rallies
Markets in the Line of Fire
Escalating Middle East tensions—from U.S. strikes on Iran to attacks on oil tankers and a shutdown at Dubai’s Jebel Ali port—are stoking fears of global logistics paralysis and energy shocks. Yet equity markets are proving surprisingly resilient: the S&P 500 barely budged while energy and defense stocks surged, and strategists like Fundstrat’s Tom Lee still expect March to be an up month. Unusual options activity in stocks like Humana and stock-picking debates in sectors such as specialty retail show investors actively hunting for opportunities amid the turbulence. At the same time, the U.S. market has trailed international equities since the start of Trump’s second term, raising questions about future leadership as geopolitical risks mount.