US Economic Policy Digest

Inflation Data Release

• 🔥 June CPI Drop: U.S. consumer prices fell 0.4% in June, the largest one-month CPI decline since April 2020, as energy...

• U.S. consumer prices fell 0.4% in June—the largest monthly drop in four years—driving annual inflation down to 3.5% from 4.2%.
• Core inflation...

The San Francisco Fed describes a labor market in balance and solid growth, with inflation elevated but expected to ease toward 2% by 2028.

Markets...

Kevin Warsh's first congressional hearings reveal tensions over the Fed's credibility and new policy approach.

• AI risks highlighted: Sen. Warnock...

The Fed conference highlighted that dollar-denominated stablecoins and digital payments are expanding access to dollar-based finance and likely...

The OBBBA rescinded most IRA grants and loans while phasing out wind and solar tax credits, yet the revised framework still preserves substantial...

US retail sales rose just 0.2% in June, below the expected 0.3% and sharply down from May's 1% gain, hinting at consumer spending moderation....

The mortgage rate lock-in effect has kept many homeowners from selling, distorting demand toward larger homes and propping up prices.

• If rates fall...

No significant updates today.

Three distinct pressures keep U.S. inflation elevated and complicate the Fed's task.

• Geopolitical energy: Gasoline prices rose 21% year-over-year...

Two sharply different June CPI scenarios are shaping Fed expectations under Chair Warsh.

• Cooling path: Headline CPI seen falling to 3.8% y/y with...

Even prominent China hawks now argue a verifiable AI treaty with Beijing may be needed to slow the race and address jailbreak risks that could hand cyberweapons to adversaries. This reflects the non-zero-sum nature of advanced AI safety.

Earnings and Inflation Data Week

• 🔥 Packed Earnings Calendar: Major banks including JPMorgan Chase, Goldman Sachs, Bank of America, Wells Fargo,...

US markets face a pivotal week where CPI data, AI-driven costs, and earnings season intersect as key drivers.

• Inflation watch: June CPI expected at...

• Academic leadership: Four Harvard professors head task forces reviewing Fed communications, balance sheet, data, inflation, and productivity under...

Macroeconomic Forecasts

• 🔥 GDP and CPI Revisions: Economists have cut US GDP forecasts and raised CPI projections, with core inflation hitting...

Conflicting data and views leave the Fed under Kevin Warsh facing deep uncertainty on rates.

• Dovish analysis finds no case for hikes: inflation...

• Federal deficit reached $1.4 trillion in first nine months of FY2026, $35 billion above last year.
• Interest payments hit $723 billion through May,...

Moody's Analytics Economic View page is currently inaccessible due to placeholder or broken content, yielding no usable US economic outlook or data.

Inflation Measurement Updates

• 🔥 Core PCE Methodology Shift: BEA changes to the PCE Price Index starting September 30 will lower measured core...