As 2026 progresses, Xi Jinping’s campaign to cement absolute control over the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) and the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) has not only intensified but entered a new phase marked by deeper purges, broader political crackdowns, and growing elite flight. The opaque atmosphere surrounding leadership succession has worsened, with fresh signs of elite instability, institutionalized personalized governance, and widening factional distrust. Recent revelations about abnormal absences at key military-political forums, expanded anti-corruption sweeps targeting officials with overseas ties, and continued sidelining of senior PLA commanders underscore the precarious internal balance as the CCP approaches its crucial 21st National Congress in late 2027.
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### Intensified Military Purges and Command Disruptions
The PLA remains the primary arena where Xi’s consolidation efforts manifest most starkly, with new reports confirming a widening purge and operational instability.
- **Abnormal Absences at Capital Military-Political Forum Highlight Elite Turmoil**
Just before the Chinese New Year, the annual Sichuan military-local government spring forum exposed unusual personnel anomalies.
- Two senior Western Theater Command generals—Commander Wang Haijiang and Political Commissar Li Fengbiao—both absent simultaneously, an unprecedented event raising alarms within military circles.
- Wang Haijiang’s repeated absences from major events, including the Fourth Plenum, have fueled speculation of investigation or purge, signaling that the purge’s reach now extends into crucial theater commands.
- These absences coincide with broader PLA leadership disarray and reinforce fears about the operational impact of Xi’s “扬老抑少” strategy, which paradoxically purports to “promote the old” but has resulted in sidelining key senior figures.
- **Prolonged Disappearance of General Zhang Youxia Deepens Command Crisis**
Zhang Youxia’s continued absence from public and military functions for over three weeks remains a focal point of concern.
- Zhang, a former Central Military Commission (CMC) vice-chairman, represented an important factional counterweight within the PLA, and his sidelining underscores Xi’s methodical dismantling of traditional military networks.
- The dismantling of Zhang Jianhua’s Guangdong military-industrial support base has further eroded Zhang Youxia’s influence, exacerbating factional fractures.
- Meanwhile, Zhang Shengmin, the lone remaining CMC member besides Xi, has been elevated as the military’s ideological mouthpiece, with PLA media erasing references to sidelined generals to underscore loyalty to Xi personally.
- **Rumors of Missing Theater Commanders and Sweeping Purges Fuel Operational Uncertainty**
Viral leaks and intelligence reports allege the “disappearance” or forced removal of multiple theater command commanders, a development that could severely disrupt military modernization and logistics.
- The fate of senior logistics officials like Liao Xilong and He Song remains unclear, compounding worries about command stability and supply chain continuity in sensitive regions such as the Taiwan Strait.
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### Broader Political Crackdowns and Expanded Anti-Corruption Measures
Xi’s consolidation extends far beyond the military, penetrating provincial party structures and the security apparatus with increased severity and scope.
- **Anti-Corruption Sweeps Target ‘Half-Naked Officials’ (半裸官) and Overseas Connections**
A recent report from the Epoch Times cites sources revealing that since early 2025, CCP government departments and state-owned enterprises have conducted multi-round vetting campaigns targeting high-level officials with overseas ties.
- The term “半裸官” (literally “half-naked officials”) refers to cadres whose close family members—spouses or children—reside abroad, a red flag in Beijing’s eyes indicative of potential disloyalty or risk of defection.
- This expanded anti-corruption and loyalty vetting campaign reflects growing elite anxiety, with rumors of “跳船” (“jumping ship”) becoming widespread as officials preemptively flee or fall under suspicion.
- The campaign’s broad reach threatens to exacerbate succession ambiguity by shrinking the pool of trusted elites and increasing paranoia within governing circles.
- **Provincial Party Leadership Purges Intensify**
The recent arrest of Hunan Party Secretary Yi Lianhong, linked to the “Zhijiang Gang,” exemplifies the continued targeting of provincial power bases seen as factional rivals.
- Speculation around senior security chief Wang Xiaohong’s health and possible removal signals ongoing realignments within China’s security organs, reflecting Xi’s drive to replace potentially unreliable figures with hardliners like Wang Zhonglin.
- These moves institutionalize personalized governance, reinforcing Xi’s direct control through mechanisms like the CCP Central Party Office’s February 12 directive mandating regular supervisory talks between party leaders and subordinates.
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### External Intelligence Exploitation Heightens Internal Paranoia
The CCP’s internal vulnerability has prompted intensified foreign intelligence activity, particularly by the CIA, which has launched high-profile recruitment campaigns targeting disaffected PLA officers.
- **CIA’s “Save the Future” Recruitment Video Exploits PLA Morale Decline**
Released on February 12, the professionally crafted video appeals directly to mid-level PLA officers frustrated by corruption and factional purges.
- The dramatized narrative encourages cooperation with U.S. intelligence to “save the future,” indicating a strategic effort to capitalize on morale declines following sidelining of figures like Zhang Youxia.
- This campaign, reportedly backed by CIA Director John Ratcliffe, exacerbates PLA paranoia, further fracturing command cohesion and raising the risk of intelligence leaks.
- **Factional Disinformation Campaigns Amplify Succession Confusion**
Coordinated smear operations target potential successors like Hu Chunhua, undermining their standing amid swirling rumors of theater commanders’ disappearances.
- These campaigns generate internal confusion and complicate external intelligence assessments, heightening the risk of miscalculation as the 2027 Congress approaches.
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### Civilian Leadership Adjustments and Taiwan Policy Rhetoric Reflect Strategic Risk Management
In response to growing internal and external pressures, Xi has overseen notable civilian leadership reshuffles and moderated Taiwan policy rhetoric.
- **Politburo Reshuffles Signal Factional and Technocratic Balancing**
Key Politburo figures such as Wang Huning, Cai Qi, Ding Xuexiang, and Hu Chunhua have experienced significant portfolio changes.
- Former Premier Li Qiang’s waning influence contrasts with the resurgence of Liu He, signaling a tilt toward technocratic governance amid widening challenges.
- Despite speculation, no clear succession endorsement for Hu Chunhua has emerged, leaving the leadership succession question unresolved.
- **Taiwan Policy Shifts Toward “Peaceful Integration”**
Official rhetoric has softened from the hardline “必然统一” (“inevitable unification”) to “和平融合” (“peaceful integration”), a recalibration spearheaded by Wang Huning during CCP sessions in early February.
- This nuanced shift aims to ease regional tensions and reduce U.S. pressure without abandoning long-term reunification goals.
- Informal backchannel diplomacy reportedly involving Xi Jinping and former U.S. President Donald Trump underscores Beijing’s efforts to moderate U.S. congressional support for Taiwan amid fragile internal conditions.
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### Heightened Political Sensitivity and Elite Nervousness During Spring Festival
The 2026 Spring Festival period revealed subtle yet significant shifts in CCP elite dynamics and messaging tone, indicative of mounting political sensitivity.
- **Weakened Tone at Xi Jinping’s Annual New Year Group Gathering**
The annual 团拜会 displayed a noticeably softer tone compared to previous years, with attendance lists showing key absences and reshuffles.
- Speculation about a “three-month timeline” for major political changes has resurfaced, focusing on military command personnel decisions and the upcoming Two Sessions (两会).
- Popular YouTube analyses such as “张又侠事件连环爆” and “習近平過年團拜會基調轉弱” interpret these signals as cautious factional maneuvering amid uncertain leadership succession.
- **Elevated Security and Military Alertness Reflect CCP Risk Aversion**
Xi has reportedly ordered Beijing-based PLA units to “fully follow the Party” and prepare for potential “all-out battle,” highlighting anxieties about both domestic instability and external confrontation risks.
- The Central Guard Bureau’s increased activity during the Spring Festival further illustrates heightened political sensitivity surrounding Xi’s personal security and public image.
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### Implications and Outlook Toward the 21st CCP National Congress
The CCP’s internal landscape in mid-2026 is characterized by deepening factional battles, extensive purges, and a persistent leadership succession crisis.
- **Military Cohesion and Modernization Under Severe Strain**
The sidelining of senior generals and removal of key theater commanders risk fracturing command cohesion and jeopardizing critical modernization programs, particularly in the Taiwan Strait theater.
- **Elite Flight and Expanded Vetting Narrow Leadership Pool**
The crackdown on officials with overseas ties and the rise of “半裸官” vetting reflect increased elite paranoia and shrinking political space, intensifying succession ambiguity.
- **Succession Ambiguity Fuels Political Instability**
Sophisticated disinformation campaigns and absence of an endorsed successor exacerbate elite anxiety and complicate CCP governance stability.
- **Softened Taiwan Rhetoric and Civilian Reshuffles as Stability Measures**
Adjustments in civilian leadership and moderated Taiwan policy signal pragmatic moves to manage internal tensions and external risks.
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### Conclusion
Xi Jinping’s power consolidation campaign in 2026 has entered a critical, volatile phase marked by intensified military purges, expanded political crackdowns, and elite flight. The prolonged disappearance of senior PLA commanders, abnormal absences at key military-political forums, and widened anti-corruption vetting targeting officials with overseas ties illustrate the depth of elite anxiety and factional instability. External intelligence exploitation and factional disinformation further complicate internal dynamics, undermining military readiness and political cohesion.
As the CCP marches toward the 21st National Congress, these developments underscore the profound challenges Beijing faces in managing succession ambiguity, preserving military effectiveness, and maintaining regime stability amid rising internal and external pressures. Close monitoring of personnel movements, factional messaging, and policy rhetoric will remain essential to understanding China’s evolving political trajectory and its broad regional and global implications.
