Gold Intraday Pulse

• Price action: Gold steadies near $4,186-$4,200 after pulling back from two-week highs on dollar strength.
• Key driver: Traders await Wednesday's...

• Central banks added a net 41 tonnes in May, led by Poland (+18t) and China (+10t), taking advantage of lower prices after 2025 moderation.
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June US CPI is expected to show headline prices falling month-on-month, driven by plunging gasoline, reinforcing market pricing for an extended Fed pause and further diminishing rate hike odds this year ahead of the July 14 release.

Market Highlights

• 🔥 Gold near two-week high: Spot gold steady at $4,175.02 after weekly gain of more than 2%, driven by cooling US rate-hike...

• Gold failed to hold above $4,180 resistance and is testing $4,140 support after multiple rejected rallies, yet also touched $4,200 intraday before...

Gold holds steady near $4153-$4175 on declining odds of a September Fed rate hike, now at just 54-55% after the soft June jobs report. The weak 57k...

Thursday's Fed minutes from Powell's first meeting will clarify December rate-hike odds already priced at 25bp, with October possible.

ECB minutes on...

Gold rallied for the week per the latest technical forecast, giving day traders a bullish bias to monitor for continuation moves on XAUUSD.

Prediction markets assign 76.5% odds to XAUUSD closing above its July 6 opening price, signaling bullish intraday sentiment driven by post-NFP dollar...

NFP Catalyst and Macro Impact

• 🔥 Weak Jobs Data Triggers Rally: Spot gold surged past $4120 to $4126.97 after June NFP came in at 57k, prompting...

Weak June NFP at 57k jobs triggered immediate dovish repricing, lifting spot gold above $4,170 as DXY and yields fell.

• Price reaction: Sharp...

Rebound Drivers

• 🔥 Warsh Comments Flip Bias: Fed Chair Warsh stated inflation risks are receding with oil prices easing concerns, sending gold...

Gold staged a sharp intraday recovery above $4,000 to $4,050-$4,071 after Fed speakers eased immediate rate-hike fears.

• Waller and Warsh both...

Macro Drivers

• 🔥 Dollar Slip: DXY fell 0.17% after May core PCE matched expectations at +3.4% y/y, reducing immediate USD pressure on XAUUSD.
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Benign May core PCE at +3.4% y/y as expected may keep the Fed from tightening, pushing DXY down 0.17%. Weaker dollar and lower yields lifted gold 0.97% as it recovered some weekly losses.

• Elliott Wave view sees wave 4 correction nearly complete above 3,725.05, targeting 4,900–5,610 on longs from dips.
• Support/resistance breakdown...

Hawkish Fed and PCE Data Impact

• 🔥 Hawkish Fed Dominates: XAUUSD near $4,017 as hawkish Fed expectations drive price action.
• PCE Print...

• XAUUSD last traded near $4,017.35, down roughly 28% from the January peak of $5,595.46.
• Access to the source site is restricted for US persons, a...

Gold crossed $4,000 for the first time on June 26, driven by geopolitics, central bank buying, and dollar uncertainty. It then plunged to a...

Kevin Warsh's debut press conference emphasized price stability, reshaping rate-hike expectations and unraveling the dollar-depreciation trade that...