Central Bank Buying Narrative Mixed: Q1 Slashed to 57t, Q2 Strong at 289t
Key Questions
What was the record central bank gold demand in Q1 according to the WGC?
Central banks purchased a record 245 tonnes in Q1. This demand provides structural support for gold prices.
How much gold has the PBOC bought in recent months?
The PBOC made its 20th consecutive monthly purchase of 480k ounces in June. China also added 15 tonnes in June per official data.
What does Goldman Sachs estimate about China's actual gold accumulation?
Goldman Sachs suggests China's real accumulation could be 4.8 times the official figures. This reinforces the view of strong underlying central bank buying.
Why does central bank buying act as a floor for gold near $4,000?
Structural demand from banks like Poland (82t in H1) and others remains intact. This supports dip-buying interest around the $4,000 level despite other factors.
What caution exists despite ongoing central bank gold purchases?
Gold failed to act as a safe haven during Middle East tensions. Russia sold 44 tonnes in H1, though this is viewed as a known ongoing trend rather than a new catalyst.
WGC revised Q1 2026 central bank gold purchases from 244t to 57t, the lowest in years. Q2 data confirmed 289t, led by Poland and China, with Russia selling to plug deficits. The structural floor remains but is weaker than previously thought.