FOMC Rate Tracker

FOMC Communications

• 🔥 Warsh Hawkish Debut: Kevin Warsh's first FOMC meeting delivered hawkish signals with the median dot plot now projecting...

The Fed's hawkish turn is rippling across markets in three distinct ways.

• Fed accounting losses: Paid $167B in interest to banks in 2025 while...

• Markets slashed July hike odds to 30% but kept September at 80% after May PCE hit 4.1% YoY, its highest since 2023.
• Core PCE climbed to 3.4% while...

Markets have sharply repriced the Fed under Chair Kevin Warsh toward rate hikes through 2026, extending the dollar rally.

• DXY hits multi-month...

• Mainstream lens stresses consumer pain: median 2026 rate path jumps to 3.8% with nine officials now seeing hikes, keeping 30-year mortgages near...

FOMC Decision & Communications

• 🔥 Rates Held Steady: The Federal Reserve held rates at 3.50%-3.75% under new Chair Kevin Warsh while adopting a...

Warsh's first FOMC meeting removed all forward guidance and shortened the policy statement to roughly 130 words, stripping away the information...

• Dollar strength: DXY hits 101.41, highest since May 2025, after June 16-17 hawkish FOMC.
• Rate hike bets: Futures price 54.6% odds of September...

• Warsh held rates at 3.50%-3.75% but delivered a hawkish message prioritizing price stability, prompting markets to price possible hikes this year.
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Hawkish June FOMC Outcome

• 🔥 Rate Hold with Hike Signals: The FOMC held the federal funds rate at 3.5%-3.75% while nine of 18 officials now...

June FOMC Decision

• 🔥 Rates Held Steady: The Federal Reserve maintained the benchmark interest rate at 3.50%-3.75% in a unanimous 12-0 vote...

Markets reacted sharply negative to the June FOMC, described as losing "a friend" amid hawkish signals.

• Higher-for-longer outlook: Median...

• New leadership in action: Kevin Warsh chairs his debut FOMC meeting as the committee shifts
• Forecast adjustments: 2026 GDP lowered to 2.2% and unemployment to 4.3%
• Communication overhaul: Press conference delivers substantial new details to unpack

• Fed kept rates steady yet signaled a hawkish, inflation-focused shift that is already lifting short-term yields.
• Strong labor data and input costs...

Kevin Warsh's first FOMC meeting held rates at 3.50%-3.75% but delivered a clear regime shift.

• Dot plot turned hawkish: Nine officials now project...

• Stocks fell sharply after the new Fed chair's hawkish policy debut
• Bond yields spiked, pushing the 2-year Treasury to a one-year high
• Dollar strengthened as the pound sank on rate-hike expectations

FOMC Decision

• 🔥 Rates Held Steady: The Federal Reserve kept the federal funds rate unchanged at 3.5%-3.75% in a unanimous vote during Kevin...

Warsh's debut FOMC meeting marks a clear break from prior communication style.

• No rate change at 3.5%-3.75%, but forward guidance language removed...

• Rates held steady at 3.5-3.75% with unanimous vote and no dissents.
• Easing bias removed as statement shortened to 130 words, dropping forward...

• Fed held rates at 3.5-3.75% but stripped all easing signals from its statement.
• Stocks tumbled across indices as the dot plot turned hawkish on...