FOMC Rate Tracker

Official Fed Communications

• 🔥 Williams on Policy Stance: NY Fed President John Williams stated that monetary policy is in a good place, the...

The PIER snapshot covers the Jun-26 FOMC meeting decisions and projections.

Hawkish Fed signals are overriding falling energy prices, with officials like Kashkari, Hammack, and Waller now eyeing hikes or tighter policy even as...

• Warsh's 130-word June statement stripped forward guidance and omitted his dot, making the minutes the sole detailed record of committee views on...

Markets price a 73.3% chance of unchanged rates at the July 29 meeting, with only a 25-30% probability of a hike.

• Inflation focus: Fed raised 2026...

• Inflation progress: Lower energy prices have made Williams more optimistic about the Fed's inflation outlook
• Steady commitment: He reaffirmed the...

Two key insights from the July 6 speech on monetary policy transmission:

• Initial conditions trump historical averages, as seen in 2022 when high...

Fed Officials on Policy Path

• Bullard on July Timing: Former St. Louis Fed President Bullard stated it would be 'a little soon' to raise rates in...

Gold prices showed little movement as traders await the June FOMC minutes for clarity on Chair Kevin Warsh's rate policy approach. Weaker jobs data...

• June headline CPI expected to fall on plunging gasoline prices, pushing markets toward pricing a prolonged Fed hold rather than any 2026 hike.
• Oil...

Fed Governor Waller warned inflation risks now outweigh labor concerns, flipping his prior stance on cuts.

• The FOMC left rates unchanged at...

• Waller calls forward guidance a "valuable tool" that can accelerate policy effects when markets understand the Fed's reaction function
• Warsh...

Weak June payrolls of +57K triggered a sharp drop in July Fed hike odds to 18% from 29%.

• Bonds diverged: 10Y yields climbed to 4.49% even as...

• Core inflation above 3% crosses Bullard's red line and threatens Fed credibility.
• July rate hike viewed as premature, with September the next...

Fed Rate Path Outlook

• 🔥 Barclays Extended Hold View: Barclays sees an extended interest rate hold by the Fed, citing Warsh's Sintra remarks and...

Markets brace for the first FOMC minutes under Chair Kevin Warsh on July 8, which will face intense scrutiny for rate outlook clues.

• Yields ease to...

Warsh's Sintra remarks highlighted cooling inflation risks alongside "prices too high," while refusing forward guidance.

• Crypto surge: Bitcoin...

Conflicting Fed Policy Signals

• 🔥 Pause Expectations: Kenanga Investment Bank expects the Fed to keep rates on hold after June non-farm payrolls...

Weak June jobs data (57k vs 113k expected) and Warsh's Sintra remarks are pulling Fed expectations in opposing directions.

• US markets: Two-year...

FOMC Communications

• June Meeting Outcome: The Federal Reserve left the Fed Funds Target Range unchanged at 3.50%–3.75% at its June meeting.

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