FOMC Rate Tracker

April's hotter-than-expected CPI and PPI data are fueling debate inside the Fed over whether the next move should be a hike rather than a hold.

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The nonfarm payrolls surge has rewritten the Fed outlook, pushing rate cuts further into the future. Economic adviser Kevin Hassett noted that AI-driven productivity gains and capital spending could trigger a supply shock.

• The Fed is buying $40 billion in bonds monthly via reserve management purchases, reversing 35 months of prior shrinkage and expanding the balance...

The Fed's latest hold keeps mortgage rates near 6.5% and car loans expensive while savings yields hit multi-year highs.

• Mortgages: Stuck near 6.5%...

The Federal Reserve's unexpected quarter-point rate increase on May 15 signals a sharp policy pivot amid economic instability, immediately sparking recession concerns and market volatility.

April CPI hit 3.8% YoY—hottest since May 2023—with core at 2.8%, surprising markets.

• Analyst alert: Inflation stickier than Fed expects; 10Y...

Traders go live reacting to FOMC meeting minutes for impacts on gold, Nasdaq, and forex markets. Tune in for real-time perspectives amid rate decision context to anticipate moves.

Jamie Dimon is sounding the alarm on inflation not fully under control and interest rates/Fed pressures, amid policy shifts that could trigger unthinkable stock shocks and recession risks – watch for tighter Fed stance.

Key angles shaping zero-cut pricing and hike risks under new Fed Chair Warsh:

• Hawkish history: Never voted for cuts except 2008 panic; warns against...

Key Fed views on holding rates amid war-driven inflation:

• Williams: No need for rate changes; policy in good place, stable long-term inflation...

Key sequence in Fed leadership shift:

• Senate confirms Warsh 54-45 on Wednesday as chair (term thru 2030); installed on board Tuesday, displacing...

Bond market trend signals tightening bias: Vigilantes urge Fed to drop April FOMC easing stance.

• Yields spike: 30-year Treasuries >5% (first since...

The Federal Reserve Board released results from two surveys of senior bank officers on their views of discount window operations—key data for gauging liquidity stigma and readiness.

Labor market trend: Moderating yet resilient job adds in March-April data.

• April: +115,000 jobs, unemployment holds at 4.3%
• Nonfarm payrolls rose...

Key distinctions to decode Fed's 2% inflation target:

• CPI tracks consumer prices – what households pay.
• PPI measures producer/wholesale prices...

• Modest easing: Freddie Mac's 30-year fixed rate fell 1bp to 6.36% after two-week gains; 15-year to 5.71%, still below year-ago peaks.
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The US economy withstands shocks but loses momentum, with Mapfre Economics lowering growth forecasts to 2% (2026) and 1.9% (2027) due to more persistent inflation. Key watch for Fed policy.

Hawkish shift ahead: WisdomTree predicts the Federal Reserve is heading toward rate hikes rather than cuts, marking a significant change in monetary policy expectations.

• Senate confirms Kevin Warsh as next Fed Chairman, succeeding Powell
• Trump's nominee in narrowest confirmation vote in modern history
• Signals potential 'America First' shift at the Fed
  Markets watching policy pivot.

Hot inflation trend intensifies pressure on Fed rate cut hopes:

• CPI hotter-than-expected: Sparks global selloff, NASDAQ futures drop 1%
• Core CPI...