Markets swing on Hormuz oil/Fed hawkish shift
Key Questions
How have oil prices and markets reacted to the Hormuz conflict?
Oil surged 3% after earlier dropping 4.5% and briefly crashing below $100, with WTI now above $110 carrying 41.5% odds. The S&P has dropped on inflation fears while yields reached 4.63%.
What factors are driving market volatility and Fed expectations?
A potential Warsh Fed chair appointment and persistent inflation concerns have pushed yields higher, while gold rose 1.2%. Mortgage rates may remain elevated even after the conflict ends.
How is China's economy affected by the Hormuz disruptions?
China's industrial production slowed to 4.1% and retail sales neared zero due to Hormuz-related supply issues, real estate collapse, and consumer hoarding. This weakness risks triggering new trade wars amid global economic pressure.
Oil up 3% on infrastructure attacks after earlier -4.5% and crash below $100; Warsh Fed chair, yields 4.63%, gold +1.2%; S&P drops on inflation fears, WTI >$110 odds 41.5%. Harvard top holding now Bitcoin ETF. China growth weakens (industrial production 4.1%, retail near zero) due to Hormuz disruption, real estate collapse, consumer hoarding, risking new trade wars. Mortgage rates may stay elevated post-conflict.