Century-scale carbon removal required to limit climate damage
Long-term Removal Needs
Reaching net-zero emissions has long been heralded as the cornerstone of climate action, but emerging evidence and industry developments underscore that net-zero is only a critical milestone—not the finish line—in the fight against climate change. To truly limit long-term global warming and avoid irreversible environmental damage, humanity must commit to century-scale carbon removal efforts—large-scale, sustained extraction of carbon dioxide from the atmosphere that extends well beyond achieving net-zero emissions.
The Imperative for Century-Scale Carbon Removal
Achieving net-zero means balancing annual emissions with removals, but it does not eliminate the vast stock of carbon dioxide that has already accumulated in the atmosphere due to centuries of fossil fuel use and deforestation. This historic carbon load will continue to drive warming unless actively removed.
Key insights include:
- Net-zero is a milestone, not a solution: It stabilizes emissions but doesn’t reverse past accumulation.
- Removal must continue for decades or centuries: To bring atmospheric CO₂ concentrations down to safer levels, ongoing carbon removal will be necessary, potentially at scales rivaling or exceeding current global emissions.
- Durability and permanence are critical: Carbon captured today must remain sequestered for centuries to effectively reduce warming risks.
Scaling Up Carbon Removal Technologies and Nature-Based Solutions
The need for sustained, scalable carbon removal is driving innovation and investment across multiple pathways, including:
- Direct Air Capture (DAC): Technologies that chemically extract CO₂ directly from the atmosphere, offering high durability if securely stored underground.
- Bioenergy with Carbon Capture and Storage (BECCS): Combines biomass energy generation with carbon capture to deliver net-negative emissions.
- Nature-based solutions: Reforestation, afforestation, and enhanced soil carbon sequestration provide cost-effective removal but require careful management to ensure permanence.
Recent developments demonstrate the growing commercial and institutional momentum:
- OXY and Warren Buffett’s 29% Stake in the World’s Largest Carbon Capture Plant: Occidental Petroleum (OXY), supported by major investments including a 29% stake from Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway, is advancing one of the largest DAC plants globally. This project exemplifies the commercial scaling potential of carbon capture technology, signaling confidence from private capital in carbon removal’s long-term viability.
- North American Biocarbon Conference (Debuting 2026): The upcoming conference will spotlight emerging markets, project development pathways, and innovations in biocarbon—biological carbon removal projects like reforestation and soil carbon enhancement. This institutional focus reflects increasing recognition that biocarbon is a key pillar of durable carbon removal strategies.
Challenges in Market Integrity and Policy Frameworks
While the scaling of carbon removal is promising, significant challenges remain, especially in ensuring the quality, permanence, and verification of removals:
- Voluntary Carbon Markets Under Scrutiny: Voluntary carbon markets operate on the premise of “one credit equals one tonne of CO₂ removed,” but recent analyses highlight concerns about the quality and durability of many credits. Issues such as double counting, temporary carbon storage, and lack of robust verification undermine the markets’ ability to support century-scale removal.
- Need for Stronger Standards and Verification: To underpin long-term climate goals, carbon removal projects must adhere to rigorous monitoring, reporting, and verification (MRV) protocols that guarantee permanence and prevent reversals.
- Durable Policy and Financial Mechanisms: Long-term climate policy must embed carbon removal as a permanent fixture, with robust governance, sustained investment, and innovation incentives. This includes designing financial instruments and regulatory frameworks that can support multi-decade projects, manage risks, and integrate removal efforts into national and global climate strategies.
Actionable Priorities for Integrating Century-Scale Carbon Removal
To translate the evolving understanding and momentum into effective climate action, several priorities emerge:
- Accelerate Research, Development, and Deployment (RD&D): Boost funding for breakthrough carbon removal technologies and nature-based solutions to improve scalability and cost-effectiveness.
- Strengthen Monitoring and Permanence Standards: Develop and enforce rigorous protocols for carbon accounting, verification, and long-term storage guarantees.
- Design Long-Term Financing and Governance: Create durable investment vehicles and regulatory regimes that ensure carbon removal capacity is maintained and expanded over centuries.
- Integrate Carbon Removal into Climate Planning: Embed century-scale removal goals into national commitments (NDCs) and global frameworks like the Paris Agreement to align policy and market incentives.
Conclusion
The evolving landscape makes clear that net-zero emissions is a necessary but insufficient target to fully address climate change. Real progress demands century-scale carbon removal—a sustained, large-scale, and permanent commitment to draw down historic and ongoing emissions.
Recent developments, from OXY’s record-setting carbon capture plant backed by Warren Buffett’s investment, to the launch of the North American Biocarbon Conference, reveal a rapidly maturing industry and institutional focus. Meanwhile, scrutiny of voluntary carbon markets highlights the urgent need to enhance quality and credibility.
As the world grapples with the scale and complexity of climate mitigation, integrating century-scale carbon removal into policies, markets, and finance is essential. Only through such a durable, expansive approach can humanity hope to safeguard the planet for future generations.