Macro/oil and trading volatility — Goldman 'worst oil crisis in history' Hormuz/Bren $141+
Key Questions
What is Goldman Sachs' view on the current oil crisis?
Goldman Sachs describes it as the 'worst oil crisis in history' involving Hormuz and Brent above $141, with WTI over $116 and 30% odds of escalation. They foresee shortages pushing WTI above $110.
What oil price outlook does Goldman Sachs provide?
Amid the crisis, Goldman Sachs sees WTI above $110 short-term, with $80 end-of-year amid AI volatility. Asia spreads are widening due to Trump Iran threats.
Is Goldman Sachs recommending buying tech stocks now?
Yes, Oppenheimer at Goldman Sachs calls the tech dip a 'generational buy' for Mag7 stocks, down 11% YTD despite 44% EPS growth and PEG ratios at 1970s lows. Tech is resilient to oil shocks via AI reset.
What are Goldman Sachs' fixed income positioning recommendations?
GSAM advises underweight Japan, overweight UK, and active ETFs amid $110+ oil and AI volatility. This positions for macro and trading volatility.
What other investment calls has Goldman Sachs made recently?
Price target hikes on AT&T, Cheniere, and Citi dividends; overweight energy, S&P to 7600, gold $5200-5400. GS stock could test $350 pre-Q1.
How are CTAs and hedge funds positioned per Goldman Sachs?
CTAs flipped to $55B buys after a dump. Pasquariello warns of long-short dilemma, with net sellers at 31st percentile and de-risking advised, focusing on liquidity.
What factors are driving tech stock valuations lower per Goldman Sachs?
Tech valuations are depressed and rare, offering entry points despite high growth. It's a sentiment-driven reset, not sector-wide, with alpha in AI-resilient names.
Who is commenting on oil, Fed, and AI amid the crisis?
Kaplan discusses oil/Fed/AI disinflation. Overall, resilient AI tech dip seen as buy amid macro/oil volatility.
Oppenheimer Mag7 'generational buy' tech dip (-11%YTD lag vs 44%EPS, PEG lows '70s AI reset resilient to oil); Kaplan on oil/Fed/AI disinflation amid crisis WTI$116+/Hormuz (30% odds); Trump Iran threats/GS shortages >$110 WTI/Asia spreads; GSAM fixed income underweight Japan/overweight UK/active ETFs amid $110+ oil/$80 EOY/AI vol; CTAs flip $55B buys post-dump; Pasquariello hedge warns long-short dilemma/net sellers 31st perc/de-risking; PT hikes AT&T/Cheniere/Citi divvy; gold $5200-5400; energy OW/S&P7600; GS $350 test pre-Q1.