AI/tech rotation and profit-taking, with energy surge and chip sell-off

The rotation out of tech into value/defense/healthcare continues, but a tactical reversal that began on oil slump from US-Iran ceasefire progress has been abruptly reversed by renewed US-Iran hostilities, sending oil surging 6% and crushing airlines/trucking while boosting energy stocks. Chip stocks slide further: Nvidia loses top spot to Apple, Kospi circuit breaker, CXMT IPO gains. Semiconductor index tests critical support with potential head-and-shoulders pattern; Nvidia CDS widening. New regulatory risk: US closes China AI chip loophole. Alphabet post-earnings: cloud revenue +82% but stock weak. Microsoft, AMD gain on tech bounce but rotation dominant. Fed meeting this week with 33.7% chance of surprise hike. The AI trade is in a bear market while broader market holds. Apple hit a record high; Magnificent 7 earnings this week are key test. Latest: Microsoft surged 15-16% on strong guidance and lower capex, lifting tech. Apple dipped 4% after hours despite strong Q3 beat (sell-the-news). A bearish article argues the AI supercycle has topped, citing Korean ETF blowup and Chinese AI commoditization. On Friday (July 31), Amazon surged 15% on cloud strength while Apple tanked 7% on chip shortages, reinforcing the AI trade bifurcation: hyperscalers winning, hardware/iPhone getting punished. The Dow posted its fourth straight monthly gain, while the Nasdaq fell 3.2% in July. A recent contrarian analysis challenges the bullish narratives on Nvidia and Tesla, highlighting extreme expectations and potential downside risk.