Ukraine enters new phase with drone supremacy; biggest drone attack ever (660 drones); deep strikes expand; Flamingo missile operational; Russian advances slow; heatwave affects operations; analysts warn Putin may escalate
Key Questions
What was the scale of Ukraine's recent drone attack?
Ukraine launched its largest attack yet with 660 drones hitting Moscow and Crimea, including a second strike on the Dubna satellite center and the operational use of the new Flamingo cruise missile.
How are Ukrainian deep strikes affecting Russia?
Strikes have caused gasoline shortages across 84% of Russian regions, a 12-15% drop in gas production, and damage to energy and logistics infrastructure, with ISW confirming systematic degradation.
What advances have Russian forces made recently?
Russia gained only 30 sq km in June with advances slowing to near halt, while Putin claimed capture of Kostiantynivka but ISW refuted it with evidence of Ukrainian counterattacks.
What new Ukrainian weapons are now operational?
Ukraine has unveiled and used the Flamingo cruise missile with 3,000 km range, while potential first use of the FP-9 ballistic missile was intercepted near Moscow.
How is the heatwave impacting operations?
Extreme temperatures of 37°C are affecting both sides, with Russian troops struggling in Soviet-era tanks lacking air conditioning and creating local tactical advantages for Ukraine.
What diplomatic efforts are underway?
Trump and Putin held a 90-minute call, with Trump offering to help end the war and planning to meet Zelenskyy at the NATO summit in Turkey.
What are Russian casualties and losses like?
NATO confirms around 35,000 Russian monthly losses, with CSIS reporting 2 million total casualties and an 8:1 Russian loss ratio.
What NATO-related developments occurred?
Lithuania lifted its ban on nuclear weapons and foreign bases, while the EU committed €4 billion to Ukraine's defense with a focus on drone technology.
Ukraine launched 660 drones hitting Moscow and Crimea — largest attack yet. Second strike on Dubna satellite centre. Ukraine unveils Flamingo cruise missile with 3,000 km range, now operationally used in raids. Potential first use of Ukrainian ballistic missile (FP-9) intercepted near Moscow – if confirmed, major escalation. Saki Air Base strike damages hardened aircraft shelters; SBU claims 7 aircraft destroyed/damaged. Putin claims capture of Kostiantynivka, but Ukraine denies and ISW refutes with evidence — ISW confirms Russian forces have infiltrated but not seized the town, and Putin's claim to Trump is a cognitive warfare tactic. Russia's July 2 strike on Kyiv kills 27, injures 91; Patriot diversion to Middle East strains air defense. Russia retaliates against Ukrainian gas facilities, 12-15% production drop. Russian gasoline shortages and inflation at 5.8% due to refinery strikes. NATO confirms ~35,000 Russian monthly losses. France intercepts shadow fleet tanker 'Deliver'. South Korea plans 500K drone warriors. Frontline has 55-73 daily engagements, heaviest in Sloviansk, Pokrovsk, Huliaipole, Kostiantynivka. Russia gained 30 sq km in June (ISW: 11 sq mi), with Ukrainian counterattacks recapturing territory in Zaporizhzhia and Dnipropetrovsk. Putin admits 'problems' and now publicly acknowledges fuel shortages from Ukrainian strikes. CSIS reports 2M total casualties, 8:1 Russian loss ratio. Russia launched massive 74-missile, 496-drone attack on Kyiv. Ukraine converts vessel into drone mothership. Putin rare admission of supply disruptions. NPR reports Russian frontline advances have slowed to near halt as Ukrainian counterattacks and defenses become more effective. Extreme heatwave (37°C) is affecting tactical operations, with troops struggling in Soviet-era tanks lacking AC, creating local advantages. Flamingo missile now operationally used in raids. New analysis warns Putin may attempt a game-changing attack as he feels cornered. Ukraine's reliance on Starlink for battlefield comms highlights vulnerability to private company geofencing. Daily operational update confirms 55 combat clashes, heaviest on Kostiantynivka and Sloviansk axes. Putin visits frontline, hails capture of Kostiantynivka. Ukrainian drones destroy Russian MiG-29 at Belbek airfield in Crimea. Ukraine denies Russian claims of capturing Kostiantynivka; ISW refutes Putin's claim. Nightlight data shows energy shortages in Crimea from Ukrainian strikes. Ukrainian FP-5 Flamingo cruise missile used to strike Votkinsk Plant, a key Russian missile manufacturer, confirming deep-strike capability against strategic industrial targets. Russian MoD confirms Flamingo used in massive July 4 attack, claiming 10 intercepted along with 494 drones. Putin warns of more strikes and expanding war front, appearing in fatigues at frontline. Trump and Putin held 90-minute phone call on July 4; Trump offered to help end war. Lithuania lifted ban on nuclear weapons and foreign bases, signaling NATO eastern flank hardening. Russia activates 24-hour fuel monitoring network as shortages spread to 84% of regions. Russian ballistic missile attack on Kyiv after Trump-Putin call confirms escalation despite peace talks. Power outage in Sevastopol from Ukrainian strike. EU commits €4B to Ukraine defense with drone tech focus. ISW confirms Ukrainian deep strikes are systematically degrading Russian energy and logistics, causing real gasoline shortages. Trump and Zelenskyy to meet at NATO summit in Turkey. Russian soldiers are being sent on photo-driven flag missions that often result in deaths, revealing command culture problems.