Ethiopia-Tigray Conflict Risks Renewed National War

Renewed fighting near Mekelle and in Afar, artillery and drone strikes, civilian casualties, communications disruption, airport-control claims, and rebel declarations of full-scale war point to a serious breakdown of the Pretoria framework. Possible TPLF-linked, Fano, and OLA coordination could widen the conflict, with Eritrean involvement and federal escalation as major risks.