Mid‑decade assessment of great‑power competition

The Strategic Assessment 2025, published by the Institute for National Strategic Studies (INSS), continues to stand as a critical mid-decade evaluation of great-power competition, now enriched by recent developments that underscore shifting dynamics on multiple fronts. This comprehensive analysis not only reaffirms the complex and multipolar nature of global rivalry but also highlights emerging tactical and strategic trends that are reshaping the future of international security and alliance structures.

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Evolving Great-Power Competition: A Mid-Decade Reality Check

At its core, the Strategic Assessment 2025 offers an indispensable lens through which to view the ongoing recalibration of strategic postures by the United States, China, and Russia. The competition spans military, economic, technological, and ideological domains, with the stakes rising sharply in critical regions such as the Indo-Pacific, Eastern Europe, and cyberspace.

Recent developments have added nuance and urgency to these themes:

• Battlefield Cost-Shifts: The Rise of Cheap Attack Drones vs. Expensive Missiles
  The conflict in Ukraine has exposed a dramatic shift in the calculus of modern warfare. Russia’s accelerating deployment of inexpensive one-way attack drones has imposed a cost crisis on Western air defenses, which rely on costly missile interceptors. This asymmetry forces a reconsideration of force composition and defense economics, highlighting a new form of attrition warfare that favors cheap, expendable platforms over traditional high-value assets.
  This shift aligns with INSS’s emphasis on technological competition, particularly in unmanned systems and artificial intelligence, and signals a broader transformation in military modernization strategies worldwide.

• Alliance Signaling and Collective Defense in a Contested World
  NATO’s recent leadership statements have reinforced the organization’s commitment to collective defense amid regional tensions, including the ongoing Iran-related conflicts and the war in Ukraine. The NATO chief’s emphatic declaration to “ensure the security of all allies” serves as a powerful signal of resolve, reassuring members and deterring adversaries.
  This development echoes the Strategic Assessment’s focus on alliance strengthening and deterrence, illustrating how traditional security partnerships are adapting to emerging threats and geopolitical uncertainties. NATO’s posture adjustments and enhanced interoperability efforts underscore the enduring importance of integrated defense strategies in sustaining global stability.

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Key Themes and Strategic Forecasts Revisited

Geopolitical Environment:
The global stage remains marked by multipolar competition, where the interplay of military capabilities, economic influence, and ideological narratives continues to intensify. The assessment underscores how each great power leverages its unique strengths, from China’s economic statecraft and technological investments to Russia’s tactical innovations and regional assertiveness.

Military Modernization and Alliances:

• The advent of low-cost drone swarms challenges traditional air defense doctrines, prompting accelerated development of counter-drone technologies and cost-effective intercept solutions.
• NATO’s reaffirmed unity and collective defense mechanisms illustrate evolving alliance dynamics, with increased focus on rapid response and deterrence in Eastern Europe and beyond.
• Power projection remains a key objective, with great powers expanding capabilities in hypersonic weapons, space assets, and cyber operations.

Technological Competition:

• Artificial intelligence, hypersonics, space control, cyber warfare, and unmanned systems are identified as critical domains where technological edge could decisively influence future conflicts.
• The drone-versus-missile cost calculus in Ukraine exemplifies real-world implications of this technological race, underlining the need for adaptive innovation and resilient defense architectures.

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Significance for Policy and Defense Planning

The Strategic Assessment 2025 remains an essential tool for policymakers and defense planners navigating the turbulent landscape of great-power rivalry. New battlefield realities and alliance statements underscore the necessity of:

• Identifying Emerging Vulnerabilities: Recognizing how cost imbalances in weapon systems and asymmetric tactics can undermine traditional deterrence models.
• Adapting Strategies: Incorporating low-cost, high-impact technologies such as drones into force structure and defense planning, while bolstering collective security frameworks.
• Integrating Diplomatic, Economic, and Military Approaches: Ensuring comprehensive responses to multifaceted challenges, including cyber threats and regional conflicts.

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Looking Ahead

As the decade progresses, the insights from the Strategic Assessment 2025, now informed by concrete operational developments and alliance dynamics, point to a continuing intensification of great-power competition. The battlefield cost-shift towards cheaper unmanned platforms and NATO’s resolute defense posture exemplify how theory translates into practice, shaping the future trajectory of global security.

Ultimately, maintaining competitive advantages will require sustained innovation, alliance cohesion, and strategic foresight. The INSS publication remains a vital compass for navigating these turbulent waters, helping to anticipate and respond to the evolving contours of international power politics in an increasingly contested world.