Micron HBM/NAND demand vertical + capex acceleration
Key Questions
When will Micron begin high-volume shipping of HBM4?
Micron is set to start high-volume shipping of HBM4 in Q1 2026, earlier than previously guided. This ramp-up contributes to 2026 capacity being sold out, leading to escalating shortages.
What is Micron's revenue guidance for Q2 and Q3 FY26?
Micron guided Q2 FY26 revenue at $23.9 billion, up 196% year-over-year. Q3 guidance is $33.5 billion with 81% margins.
What are the details on Micron's major capital expenditure plans?
Micron plans a $100 billion New York megafab with capex of $25 billion in FY26 and over $35 billion in FY27. This supports surging HBM and NAND demand.
What pricing trends are expected for DRAM and HBM?
DRAM pricing is forecasted to rise 40-130%. This is driven by 4-5 year AI bottlenecks and strong HBM demand.
What partnerships or talks are mentioned involving Samsung and others?
Samsung is in talks with France's Mistral AI for HBM supply. Powerchip is advancing NAND production in Singapore.
HBM4 high-vol shipping Q1'26 (earlier guided), 2026 capacity sold out escalating shortages; Q2 FY26 $23.9B +196% YoY, Q3 $33.5B guide/81% margins; $100B NY megafab + capex $25B FY26-$35B+ FY27; Samsung-Mistral talks, Powerchip/Singapore NAND; DRAM +40-130% pricing, 4-5yr AI bottlenecks.