Hot inflation and hawkish Fed tilt keep rate risk elevated

The Fed held rates at 3.75%–4.00%, but two dissents favored a hike; October CPI exceeded forecasts and retail sales rose only 0.2%. A newly read report puts October producer-price inflation at 6.5% year over year, but its date and source details need verification. Bloomberg reports growing official support for a December hike alongside debate over the pace; futures pricing reportedly implies about 76 basis points of hikes through July 2027, which is market pricing rather than a Fed forecast.