Turkish Lira Structural Insights

FOMC holds rates at 3.50-3.75% for another pause, 11-1 vote. Muted cuts ahead – dot plot clusters at 3.5-4% for 2026, only big shifts could alter...

• Carry trades in commodity currencies deliver best returns in 3 years
• Rising oil prices, triggered by Iran war, boosting the strategy
• Strengthens carry/value signals for CEEMEA peers like ZAR; scale ETF sizing, hedge TRY oil import risk

Oil Shock on Turkish Markets

• 🔥 Turkey Equities Plunge: Turkey plunged −4.5% on oil import cost shock and lira pressure amid $103 oil.
• Oil...

• TRY hit hard: Turkey plunged −4.5% on $103 oil import cost shock and lira pressure.
• CB nuance needed: Responses depend on oil rise causes,...

Strategic provocation: Iran tests NATO boundaries with missiles fired at Turkey.

• Kurecik site in Eastern Anatolia hosts US AN/TPY-2 radar, closest...

De-escalation signal: Turkey believes Iran is open to back-channel diplomacy.

• Mediator positioning: Good relations with Washington and Tehran enable...

Key for global yields: Looming Fed meeting shifts market bets for 2026 interest-rate cuts – monitor for CEEMEA FX carry/value model recalibrations and TRY ETF positioning.

CBRT Policy Hold and Tightening

• 🔥 Rate Steady at 37%: Turkey’s central bank held its one-week repo rate unchanged at 37%, pausing cuts due to...

Geopolitical escalation intensifies:

• New Ayatollah Mojtaba vows continued Strait of Hormuz closure to pressure enemies, ongoing US base attacks
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CBRT holds policy tight via structural shift:

• Suspends weekly repo window, moves funding to overnight lending
• Effective rate jumps 300bp to...

Geopolitical policy anchor:

• MPC under Governor Fatih Karahan holds one-week repo rate at 37%, matching all expectations.
• Pause driven by Iran war...

• Oil surge from Iran conflict ripples to bond yields, fiscal balances, inflation expectations.
• IMF warns: Sustained 10% oil rise adds ~40bps to...

Oil Retreat and Energy Volatility

• Euro Zone Bonds Recover: Euro zone bonds recover slightly as oil prices retreat from highs amid Middle East...

Oil pullback offers de-escalation hint for CEEMEA/TRY tail-risk models:

• Prices edge back from $119/bbl highs on G7 reserve expectations
• Germany...

Multi-angle view on ME conflict's FX reversal and TRY resilience:

• EM FX consensus reversed: Dollar surges on safety bid; EM currencies drop 1.5%,...

• Policy call: CBRT to hold rates on March 12 amid hawkish global re-pricing from energy shocks
• FX stabilisation: Suspended repo auctions, launched...

Turkey's household gold surge creates $300bn wealth gain over past year, with $600bn under-mattress holdings doubling amid gold at $5,000/oz.

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• Largest-ever allocation: Norway's $1.75T fund invested $1.57B in 44 Turkish companies across sectors in 2024
• Steady growth: From $485M (2021) to...

Key upgrade details:

• 22 banks (9 state-owned, 9 foreign-owned, 4 private) see outlook shift from stable to positive.
• Aligns with sovereign...

• Morgan Stanley favors Turkish lira alongside Brazilian real and Czech koruna for carry trades, citing tight policy and central bank credibility
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