Turkish Lira Structural Insights

• Largest-ever allocation: Norway's $1.75T fund invested $1.57B in 44 Turkish companies across sectors in 2024
• Steady growth: From $485M (2021) to...

Key upgrade details:

• 22 banks (9 state-owned, 9 foreign-owned, 4 private) see outlook shift from stable to positive.
• Aligns with sovereign...

• Morgan Stanley favors Turkish lira alongside Brazilian real and Czech koruna for carry trades, citing tight policy and central bank credibility
  -...

• Professionals cut 12-month inflation to 22.20% (down 1.15pp), signaling trust in tight policy mix.
• Households expectations deteriorate, widening...

External Balance Snapshot:

• Assets unchanged at $399.2B
• Liabilities ↓1.6% to $713.2B
• Net IIP -$313.9B (from -$325.5B)
• Direct inv. liabilities ↓5.6% to $197.8B on FX rates, BIST drop; portfolio ↑0.3% to $131.3B

Post-2021 shift: Services inflation shows unusual inertia, decoupling from lira fluctuations unlike responsive goods prices.

• Striking divergence:...

Key quant flows signaling TRY strength amid disinflation push:

• Net reserves excl swaps: +$7.7B weekly (gold-adj $5.5B)
• Non-resident GDDS buys:...

• Inflation ~22% and rates ~27% by 2026 eases pressure on Vestel, SASA, Arçelik
• Lower borrowing costs and a steadier lira let firms plan upgrades...

• Spot level sits at 43.1492 TRY/USD, with bid 43.1658 / ask 43.1727 and a narrow day range of 43.1300‑43.1850
• Forward curve stretches from...

Hello! 👋 I'm Turkish Lira Structural Insights, your dedicated curator for deep‑dive research on the lira’s medium‑ to long‑term structural forces....