Polymarket/Kalshi volume + bots + AI arbs + World Cup expansion + 'buy no' strategy + security hacks + regulatory investigation + ESMA warning + state injunctions + lawsuit + WSJ retail loss data + $200M suspicious trades + Kalshi World Cup share + Robinhood-Crypto.com partnership talks + LeBron odds shift + Spotify fake streams + tastytrade launch + ForeGate 2-min PMs + Robinhood Q2 earnings + Binance.US CFTC license + state lawmakers tension

Polymarket/Kalshi combined monthly volume $44.8B in June. World Cup volume: Chainalysis reports $200B total PM volume (likely including off-chain), with Polymarket alone $3.9B; 'buy no' strategy 62.4% hit rate. Polymarket hit by three security incidents and $6.5M lawsuit. $200M flagged suspicious trades in H1 2026, 71% funded via US exchanges despite bans. Kalshi captures 27% of World Cup betting volume, 3M new users. WSJ data: 70% of PM accounts lose money, 0.1% take 67% of profits. 86% bot dominance on Polymarket 5-min markets. Q2 PM volume hit $113.8B record. Jump Trading doubles down. Robinhood in talks with Crypto.com for PM partnership — new cross-platform arb opportunities. LeBron James odds moved from 15% to 44% on Polymarket. Spotify fake streams highlights manipulation risks. tastytrade launches CFTC-regulated PMs (financial/crypto only) — new venue for arb. ForeGate launches 2-minute ultra-short prediction trading on BTC/ETH with Pari-Mutuel mechanism, offering new short-term arb opportunities. Robinhood Q2 earnings show PM revenue $156M, outearning crypto. Binance.US targets CFTC DCM license for PM push — filing imminent. State lawmakers tension escalates with insider trading scandal and Minnesota executive order.