Gold, Bonds, Oil & India

Oil Price Surge

• 🔥 Brent above $78: US strikes on Iran and Russia's diesel export ban pushed Brent 5.2% higher to settle above $78, with tanker...

US strikes on Iran and Hormuz disruptions sent Brent above $78, while Treasury yields climbed to multi-week highs with the 10-year nearing 4.60%.

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Two July 8 analyses confirm gold's ongoing downtrend after fresh rejection at resistance.

• Rejection confirmed: Price turned lower from the...

India slashed US Treasury holdings to a six-year low of $181 billion in April while expanding gold reserves at record prices. This de-dollarization, mirroring other central banks, points to ongoing gold demand and added pressure on US bond yields.

Gold Recovery Signals

• 🔥 Recovery Wave: Gold started a recovery wave from the $3,950 region, ending its five-week losing streak after softer US...

• Macro lift: Softer US jobs data lifted gold 2.3% to $4,164, ending a five-week losing streak.
• Technical ceiling: Bearish trend line at $4,180 and...

Gold eased to $4,128-$4,140 after touching $4,200 resistance, with traders locking profits ahead of Wednesday's Fed minutes.

• Technical levels:...

Yields climbed Tuesday with the 30-year topping 5% and 6-month bills near 4%.

• 10-year yield hit 4.51% while 2-year surged 76bp since February,...

Oil refusing to drop despite Saudi price cuts and higher OPEC+ output points to fading war premium and rising demand fears.

• Gold climbing back...

Treasury Auction Risks

• 🔥 $119B Auction Test: U.S. Treasury to auction $119 billion in 3-year, 10-year, and 30-year bonds this week after the...

• Support cluster at $4,090–$4,145 offers key floor; break below targets $4,060 and $3,970
• Resistance sits at $4,200–$4,300; clearing $4,230 opens...

• Hormuz Strait tensions lift safe-haven bids as Iran signals new ship fees and delays US talks, supporting gold near-term.
• Weak June NFP (57k vs...

WTI crude extended its rebound to $69.26 before consolidating near $68.60, but fading Hormuz risk premium and OPEC+'s 188k bpd production increase are...

US Treasury yields held steady Monday with the 10-year at 4.475% and 30-year near 4.99%, as markets brace for this week's $119 billion in 3-, 10-, and...

Indian Equity Breakout

• 🔥 Nifty/Sensex Confirmation: Nifty 50 and Sensex broke intermediate resistance last week with a 0.9% gain each, forming...

Nifty and Sensex broke key resistance last week, confirming inverted head and shoulders patterns on daily charts that open the door for further...

• Spot gold jumped 0.9% to $4,067.67 after softer ADP jobs data and falling oil prices reduced inflation fears.
• ADP private payrolls printed 98k...

• $39B net T-bill issuance this week, including $17B on July 7 and $12B on July 9, shifts from prior paydowns as Treasury rebuilds TGA toward $1T.
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Gold Rally on Weak Jobs Data

• 🔥 Post-NFP Gains: Gold rallied to $4,174 and silver to $62.27 after weaker-than-expected US jobs data increased...

Weak June NFP data eased near-term Fed hike bets, lifting gold 1.27% to $4,174.

• Resistance: $4,200 zone caps upside; sustained break targets $4,350...