Follow the Fed

• Inflation focus stays front and center as Fed's Schmid warns officials must signal willingness to act after five-plus years above 2%.
• Warsh is...

The Fed’s preferred inflation gauge rose 3.8% in April from a year ago, driven in part by higher gas and energy prices.

PCE Inflation Report

• 🔥 April PCE Data: Headline PCE rose to 3.8% YoY (highest in nearly three years) and core PCE to 3.3% YoY.
• Market...

Fed rate cuts have not automatically boosted silver prices historically, with the metal sometimes rallying and other times crashing depending on the...

Three perspectives converge on limited Fed action this year despite sticky inflation and geopolitical tensions.

• Rates strategist view: TD...

• White House messaging adjusted after GDP revised down to 1.6% from prior 2% estimate for Q1 2026, with Treasury Secretary lowering four-quarter...

• New home sales slid while core PCE matched expectations but stayed higher than recent months
• Data shapes consumer and stock market health
• U.S.-Iran tensions keep crude oil futures above $90

No significant updates today.

No significant updates today.

• Stocks thrive amid eight straight weekly gains for the S&P 500 as equities digest higher rates without disruption.
• Bond yields surge with the...

• Warsh's bind: New Fed chair faces 3.9% April PCE print and rising odds of a hike, clashing with Trump's rate-cut demands
• Expectations break...

• Markets now price possible rate hikes under Warsh as inflation rises from Iran war and AI demand
• Warsh aims to end dot plot and cut press...

Cleveland Fed's May nowcast holds TTM inflation steady at 4.18% yet shows core PCE rising and Q2 annualized inflation hitting a blistering 6.85%, keeping FOMC rate-hike odds elevated as Iran war energy shocks persist.

Kevin Warsh's debut as Fed Chair signals a multi-dimensional shift across communication, markets, internal dynamics, and execution.

• Communication...

Foreign central banks are dumping U.S. Treasuries, dropping holdings from $9.49 trillion to $9.25 trillion.

• China cut exposure 6 percent to $652.3...

Rate Cut Outlook Revision

• 🔥 BofA Forecast Update: Bank of America now predicts the Federal Reserve will delay rate cuts until the second half...

Traders process Fed rate-cut uncertainty through starkly different lenses.

• Panic framing sees the cut story as dead, with markets pricing a 58%...

• BofA and CME FedWatch now see no rate cuts until 2027 as inflation sticks at 3.3% and April jobs beat forecasts with 115k gains.
• Surging gas...

US markets enter June shaped by high rates, tariffs and energy costs.

• Inflation stickiness: April CPI at 3.8% and Q1 GDP at 2.0% keep the Fed on...

Markets are embedding rising odds of Fed rate hikes this year amid sticky inflation, though conviction varies sharply across assets.

• Gold faces...