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September's jobs, CPI and growth releases will directly shape expectations for the Fed's 16 September policy decision.

• Labour test: 4 September NFP...

Markets will scrutinize Warsh's Jackson Hole address for conditions that would trigger rate moves, given his reluctance to offer forward guidance so...

The Cleveland Fed president dissented from the decision to hold rates at 3.5%-3.75%, arguing that inflation above target for more than five years...

July PCE held steady at 3.7% headline (above the 3.6% forecast) and 3.3% core, leaving the door open for a September rate hike despite markets pricing only a one-in-three chance and adding pressure ahead of Warsh's Friday speech at Jackson Hole.

Four regional Fed bank boards voted for a rate hike days before the July 2026 hold, pushing the primary credit rate to 4%. Cleveland, Minneapolis,...

Markets remain locked in a low-volatility grind with VIX at 15.45 and trailing option volumes ~20% below average, yet this compression suggests...

• Less is more: Warsh is expected to say little on September policy and let data speak.
• Market demands clarity: Bond and dollar markets seek...

Markets are unusually calm with the 1-day VIX below 9 ahead of Nvidia earnings and Jackson Hole, but that low-vol regime is unlikely to hold as...

Regional Fed directors and outside analysts both pushed for higher rates, yet the FOMC voted to hold.

• Internal divide: Directors at four regional...

Kalshi's KXDOTPLOT prices a median year-end 2026 rate crossing 50% between 3.80% and 3.90%, implying one 25bp hike from today's midpoint.

CME...

The Fed's new environment blends internal fractures with deliberate silence.

• Widening splits: Four regional banks pushed for a discount-rate hike,...

Global liquidity levels stay high with benign funding, yet underlying creation has stalled. Risk assets are already rotating away from higher-risk Asian markets.

• Bianco's stance: Forward guidance boxes the Fed in when conditions shift, eroding credibility and distorting decisions.
• Bond investors' plea: They...

• Druckenmiller slams doubled $4B buybacks as price management that erodes Treasury credibility.
• Intervention risks escalating purchases and appears...

Minutes show directors at four Fed banks voted to raise the discount rate days before the July meeting, revealing hawkish pressure that was overruled...

• Article 1 highlights minutes for conditionality and shifts in terms like "several" to "many", plus dot-plot dispersion as a fragility signal.
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Kevin Warsh is exploring a shift to six scheduled FOMC meetings annually — the leanest cadence in decades — which would give markets more economic...

High deficits, growing debt, and elevated rates have doubled the share of GDP devoted to interest payments to around 3%. This structural burden shows no sign of easing.

Core PCE at 3.2% year-over-year with a 0.2% monthly rise stalls disinflation far above the 2% target.

• Labor market resilience shows in Wolfe's 65k...

The rise in medium- and long-term deflation expectations during the 2021–23 inflation surge stands out as the most surprising stylized fact. This counterintuitive development offers fresh perspective for current Fed policy analysis.