Follow the Fed

Traders have pared rate-hike expectations sharply in response to the bond selloff, with the amount priced into swaps across eight major economies...

Newral compares shifts in inflation, growth, labour, commodities and currency data since the last meeting against rate-market repricing to flag...

After 20 pauses following hikes since 1994, the S&P 500 posted a median +4.7% gain three months later in 16 cases. Follow-up hikes (30 meetings)...

Higher interest rates create clear winners and losers across households.

• Savers holding cash or new bonds earn more interest
• Borrowers with...

Without a dot plot or updated projections, the October 27-28 FOMC statement and press conference become the sole signals for whether the committee...

Consumer confidence in food safety hit a new low per Gallup, with parallel drops in trust for federal oversight of the supply chain. Rising foodborne...

• Canadian disinflation looks overstated; BoC should ignore soft jobs data and stay focused on inflation.
• US CPI (est. +0.6% m/m, core +0.3%) lands...

U.S. M2 money supply YoY growth at +5.7% (Aug 2026) lines up with Nasdaq Composite YoY gains of +18.5% (Sep 2026), adding confirmation for a continued...

US consumer sentiment sits near record lows while one-year inflation expectations climb to 4.7% from 4.6%. This mix of growing frustration and...

Energy prices are set to lift headline CPI sharply while core inflation eases, creating a mixed signal for the Fed's October decision.

• Headline...

Atlanta Fed's GDPNow model for Q3 2026 real GDP growth eased to 3.6% on October 8 from 3.7% on October 6, keeping the signal for solid expansion intact.

Cooling U.S. jobs data has not settled investor sentiment, as markets continue balancing oil-price volatility and other competing macro forces.

• Every 1-point tariff rise lifts consumer goods prices 0.25% within a year, with imports passing through nearly one-for-one.
• Domestic goods see...

This week's reports on inflation, retail sales, and oil prices will offer fresh clues on whether the Fed's next hike stays on track.

• Inflation...

Trump's new White House committee to investigate Fed Governor Lisa Cook intensifies political pressure on the central bank, coming just months after...

The Fed kept its benchmark rate at 3.50%-3.75% after three prior cuts, yet two governors dissented and favored another quarter-point reduction. Their...

This week's US CPI and retail sales releases, alongside labor and international figures, will directly shape rate expectations ahead of the Fed's...

The U.S. current account deficit tells only part of the external imbalance story. Its financial counterpart—net inflows financing those deficits—plus...

• September CPI on Oct 14 stands out as the clearest potential market mover for the Oct 29 FOMC decision.
• Existing home sales and mortgage...

The 5Y sector trades 7bp above the fitted par yield on 8 Oct 2026, the largest deviation among all maturities and marking it as the clearest cheap...