Follow the Fed

Governor Waller highlighted inflation at a crossroads, with core PCE rising from 3% in December 2025 to 3.4% in May amid tariff and energy shocks. He...

• Upside inflation surprises in headline and core measures reinforce Fed caution and delay rate cuts
• Market forecasts now call for multiple 2026...

June FOMC Minutes Signal Hawkish Pivot

• 🔥 Price Stability Pledge: June FOMC minutes include an eight-word commitment to 'deliver price...

New Chair Warsh's price stability pledge and the end of forward guidance have markets repricing a hawkish turn.

• Rate odds jump: July hike...

• Dollar jumps on Middle East attacks and Hormuz closure as inflation fears lift two-hike odds to 52.1% by December
• Gold surges past $4,130 despite...

The Fed stays hawkish as inflation risks linger despite better growth signals.

• Fed View: 17 of 18 officials project no rate cuts this year, with...

Economist surveys now point to a firm prolonged hold on rates as inflation forecasts climb.

• Reuters poll shows over 75% expect no changes through...

Kevin Warsh's early moves signal a shift toward less Fed intervention and greater market discipline.

• First FOMC meeting delivered consensus on...

Kevin Warsh's first congressional testimony collides with June CPI and PPI releases on Tuesday-Wednesday, creating a double test for July rate-hike...

Gold slipped to $4,127.60 after the Fed's first meeting under Chairman Warsh delivered a hawkish surprise.

• Policy pivot: Dot plot now projects...

Labor Market Signals

• 🔥 June Jobs Report: US added only 57,000 jobs in June versus 115,000 expected, with prior months revised down 74,000 and...

• Fed officials remain deeply divided: half favor a rate hike by year-end while the other half prefer holding or cutting from 3.6%.
• Hawkish June...

The Fed's sharp reduction in forward guidance under Chair Warsh has pushed short-term yields higher, with three-month T-bills trading above 3.70% and...

The June jobs report delivered just 57,000 new positions—half the forecast—with unemployment rising to 4.2% and prior months revised lower by...

Weak June jobs report (57k added vs 115k expected) sparked market relief, as cooling labor conditions ease pressure on the Fed to hike.

• Contrarian...

Warsh's first congressional appearances next week will test his no-forward-guidance strategy while lawmakers probe his reform plans and independence...

AI as persistent force: Fed minutes cite AI-related price pressures sustaining upward pressure on technology products and electricity, with...

Labor Market Data

• 🔥 June Jobs Report: US economy added 57,000 jobs in June with unemployment falling to 4.2%, per Bureau of Labor Statistics...

Cooling jobs data clashes with sticky inflation, leaving the Fed's path unclear.

• Jobs slowdown: Economy added just 57k positions in June as...

The June CPI release on July 14 could deliver a negative headline print from falling energy prices, yet core inflation is expected to hold steady at...