WSJ Investment Pulse

Treasury Yield Movements

• 🔥 10-Year Yield Above 4.2%: The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield pushed above 4.2% as the bond market weighs rate cut...

Bond volatility at 4.2%+ stems from clashing forces:

• Geopolitical hold: Yields flat at 4.254% as markets eye Iran peace talks delays and Trump...

Antitrust risks escalate in agribusiness:

• Justice Department criminally investigating beef companies
• Probe disclosed after Trump's intervention...

Market breadth indicators show this month's rebound remains somewhat narrow-typically not a great sign for the sustainability of a stock rally. Equity investors, watch closely.

Bond Market Selloff

• 🔥 Biggest Selloff in 2-1/2 Years: Bonds logged the biggest selloff in 2-1/2 years on higher oil and US yields, with the...

Exploding debt drives inflation risk: US gross debt at $39 trillion, with $970B interest paid in 2025—government motive for modestly hot inflation....

Caterpillar (CAT) leads construction stocks with Q4 2025 earnings beat:

• Adjusted profit: $5.16/share on $19.1B revenue, topping expectations
  -...

Market alert: Bonds logged their biggest selloff in 2-1/2 years driven by higher oil and US yields. The benchmark 6.48% 2035 yield spiked to 6.8379%, up 10 bps from Friday – largest single-session jump since October 2023. Fixed income under pressure.

Rally Under Scrutiny

• 🔥 Mechanical Factors Driving Rally: The S&P’s two-week rally may be due to mechanical factors like TGA-drained liquidity,...

Equity Rally Drivers

• 🔥 Mechanical Factors at Play: The S&P’s two-week rally may be due to mechanical factors including TGA-drained liquidity,...

WSJ Dollar Index down 0.50 points (0.52%) this week to 95.17, as the dollar continues to fall – watch for tailwinds to global assets and inflation trades.

Equity rally drivers clash—fundamentals lagging:

• Nasdaq up 100% in under 3 years vs. nominal US GDP 15% growth, highlighting massive market-economic...

• Escalation risk: US military preps to board Iran-linked oil tankers in international waters soon
• De-escalation hopes: Treasury yields mostly fall...

Yield curve inversion makes cash yields look compelling, but a bond market regime shift favors duration exposure in a central bank easing setup. Time to extend maturities for better returns.

Equity Market Momentum

• 🔥 Positioning Unwinds and Melt-Up: Today’s market shows stocks melting up with ES and Russell leading, bonds lagging,...

Greg Abel has led Berkshire Hathaway for 100 days, with things already changing. BRK.A dipped 0.16% and BRK.B 0.11% amid early shifts – key for long-term investors to monitor strategy evolution.

Contrarian take: Blue Owl Capital's (OWL) selloff is overdone, ignoring stable private credit performance.

• Media hype amplified liquidity/valuation...

Positioning unwinds drive the next credit cycle leg higher, with stocks ripping, vol crushing, Russell leading, and dollar bleeding.

• Long stocks,...

Market Stabilization Actions

• 🔥 Treasury General Account Drawdown: The U.S. Treasury General Account dropped from roughly $837 billion to...

Ford will partner more with Chinese automakers overseas, coinciding with F stock down 2.12% – key watch for U.S. auto investors eyeing China exposure.