Treasury Yields Spike: 30y Tops 5.20% in Global Bond Rout
Key Questions
What levels have Treasury yields reached?
The 30-year Treasury yield hit 5.20%, a 19-year high, while the 10-year yield reached approximately 4.69% amid a global bond rout.
Who is the new Fed Chair and how are markets reacting?
Kevin Warsh is being sworn in as Fed Chair, but bond markets have not given the move a positive reception as yields continue to rise.
What are the odds of a near-term Fed rate hike?
Markets are pricing a 52% probability of a Fed rate hike, with an October increase now being anticipated.
Why might a stock selloff help bond yields?
BCA Research indicates that a meaningful stock market selloff may be needed to cool rising bond yields and ease pressure on fixed income.
What are foreign holders of US Treasuries considering?
Top foreign holders such as Japan may soon sell Treasury bonds and repatriate funds as domestic yields become more attractive.
How are rising yields affecting Asian markets?
Asian stocks are poised to decline as the global bond selloff extends and the dollar strengthens to a six-week high.
Could the 10-year yield climb to 6%?
TS Lombard warns that the bond selloff may have only just begun, with the potential for the 10-year US Treasury yield to reach 6%.
What signals are TIPS and SOFR sending about inflation?
Recent moves in Treasury yields, SOFR, and TIPS show investors are no longer overlooking inflation concerns in the bond market.
30y hits 5.20% (19-year high), 10y ~4.69%; Fed hike odds at 52%. Kevin Warsh sworn in as Fed Chair; markets pricing October hike. Stock selloff may be required to cool bonds; structural policy issues persist.