Macro credit & cap-rate risk — refinancing/liquidity exposure amid higher rates
Key Questions
What are key liquidity events amid high rates?
Blackstone closed $3B; JLL $814M in NJ/Phoenix; Hillwood/Greenstone IN at $75/SF; ICE UT $145M; NJ $23.5M sales highlight CRE liquidity.
What cap rate ranges are observed?
Cap rates range from 5.68-8.87%, with a 4-10% sweet spot for NNN leases at 5-10%. Pricing reaches $268/SF in Pompano and $290/SF in Tempe.
How is Prologis performing?
Prologis is up +19.7% YTD, showing REIT resilience amid higher rates and refinancing risks.
What Ares and Kurv transactions occurred?
Ares committed $500M + $155M to Kurv; DRA at $245M. These reflect ongoing capital deployment.
What risks does macro credit pose to CRE?
Higher rates increase refinancing and liquidity exposure, but select deals at premium pricing indicate resilience in industrial sectors.
High rates/CRE liquidity (JLL NJ/Morris/Phoenix $814M, Hillwood/Greenstone IN $75/SF, ICE UT/NJ $145M+, Dalfen/Faropoint NJ); Ares $500M EQT +$155M Kurv; DRA $245M; Mid Atlantic $5.7M; caps 5.68-8.87%; $268-359/SF; Prologis +19.7% YTD; REIT resilience.