US Macro Pulse

• Earnings strength: Adjusted EPS jumped 19% to $1.17 and sales rose 9.2%, beating estimates on pricing and the Kalwall acquisition.
• Inflation...

• Home prices rose 1.4% YoY in September per ICE, down from 1.44% in August, while Cotality showed 1.8% in August with flat-to-declining momentum.
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Consumer staples stocks that protect margins during persistent inflation cluster in discount retail, where affordability pressures are acute.

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CFO optimism for the U.S. economy and their firms eased slightly in 3Q26, but the picture splits sharply by size.

• Large firms hold up: Increased...

Hiring improved in September as employment components rose in both ISM Manufacturing and Services, with the latter returning to expansion for the first time in three months.

US imports hit a record $420.8 billion in August as the trade deficit widened to $105.6 billion, fueled by robust domestic demand and businesses...

September's 29,000 job gain, down sharply from August's revised 133,000, plus July's shift to a 10,000 loss and real wages falling behind 3.4%...

US data center capacity is still projected to hit 90 GW by 2027 despite rising local opposition and low public support.

Construction employment and...

Overseas investors channeled a record $942 billion into US equities and funds in the year to July, aligning with S&P 500 gains of 13% YTD and revised...

Long-term S&P 500 investors can still face substantial drawdowns of 20%+ at sale time, even if overall returns remain positive due to earlier...

Trump economic advisor Kevin Hassett called for former Fed Chair Jerome Powell to leave the Board immediately, labeling his extended tenure...

US consumers are sustaining economic momentum even as inflation cools, pointing to resilient demand that may ease near-term pressure on the Fed.

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Dallas Fed President Logan endorsed the FOMC's September decision to raise rates by 25 basis points to the 3.75%-4% range, reinforcing a restrictive policy path.

Markets will scrutinize the September FOMC minutes for signs of further rate hikes, as projections already point to a 4.1% median federal funds rate...

Stronger domestic demand and AI-driven investment are supporting markets even as long-term Treasury yields climb to multi-decade highs.

• Q2 GDP...

US 2026 GDP growth was revised up to 2.3% from 2.2%, setting a slightly stronger baseline as markets watch next week's indicators for signs of resilient yet uneven expansion.

Markets assign a 45% probability to September US monthly inflation printing at 0.6%, making it the clear frontrunner outcome.

September's dismal 29,000 job gain and twelve straight months of real wage declines are fueling consumer angst even as unemployment stays near 4.2%....

Following the Fed's 25 basis point September hike and hint of flexible policy adjustments, the upcoming minutes and services PMI will clarify whether this signals a one-off move or broader shift in the reaction function.

• PCE inflation rose just 0.3% in August versus 0.4% expected, with core at 0.2%, and year-on-year rates revised down to 3.4% and 3.0%.
• Consumer...