US Macro Pulse

• Diesel hit records last week as Brent rose to $96.85, hitting transport, shipping and manufacturing costs
• Any August core CPI above 0.2% would...

Strong earnings growth of over 50% YoY for S&P 500 in Q2 2026 may face pressure from climbing bond yields near 4.8-5.2%.

• Stock valuations: AI-driven...

The economic calendar helps professionals identify scheduled releases like FOMC decisions, CPI, NFP, and GDP that can shift interest rates,...

The August report showed 162,000 jobs added and 4.1% unemployment, beating forecasts and reversing prior weakness. Yet data reliability is...

Statista's inflation tracker compiles monthly U.S. CPI data through July 2026, supplying raw inputs for assessing household purchasing power and Fed policy without offering explicit trajectory analysis or allocation implications.

• Stock gains: VLO closed at $370.69, up 1.26% and ahead of the S&P 500's 1.06% advance.
• Monthly outperformance: Shares rose 21.07% over the past...

US inflation remains elevated as the GDP growth outlook brightens, with gross domestic income rising 2.2% versus 1.2% in the first quarter. This mixed picture underscores the tension between sustaining expansion and containing price pressures.

Cathie Wood forecasts that converging innovations in AI, robotics, energy storage, blockchain and multiomics will at least double global real GDP...

Democratic attorneys general are pushing back against Republican efforts to pressure the SEC and credit agencies on climate risks.

• Investor impact:...

Current macro regime shows rising nominal growth with elevated inflationary pressures, where commodities outperform.

• Core positioning: Commodity...

The affordability debate fixates on lowering prices while ignoring whether jobs pay enough to live. Fight for $15 delivered $150 billion in raises for...

• Persistent inflation from rising oil prices and year-end data keeps the Fed on hold.
• Labor market stabilization rather than overheating removes urgency for cuts.
• Combined signals support no policy shift through the forecast horizon.

Rising Treasury yields are forcing a rethink of bond portfolios and ETFs as persistent inflation becomes structurally embedded.

• Yield drivers:...

• Prediction markets lift September hike odds to 50-62% on Polymarket and CME after 162k payrolls beat.
• Gold slides 1.1% to $4,422/oz as higher rates raise bullion's opportunity cost.
• Equities retreat with Dow down 0.4% as 10-year yields jump to 4.80%.

Stablecoin pegs hold regardless of rates since reserves back tokens one-to-one. Issuer economics, however, depend heavily on short-term yields that...

The EPA and Army Corps seek extra public input on defining WOTUS to create a lasting rule that follows the Sackett decision and ends regulatory...

Dovish signals from Fed Governor Christopher Waller have cut the odds of a September rate hike to 50% from 63%, intensifying downward pressure on the...

Q2 GDP growth held at the initial 1.5% estimate, down from 2.1% in Q1, with the slowdown tied to a sharp rise in imports and weaker government...

• A market drop of 30-40% right before retirement amplifies losses when withdrawals begin, turning a 30% hit into roughly 35%.
• Sequence-of-returns...

Persistent US inflation at 3.7% PCE has shifted September FOMC odds to a near 50/50 split between hold and 25 bp hike, while BOJ intervention and...