EV demand, mineral security and new rules reshaping energy transition supply chains

Europe is racing to build domestic EV battery and auto supply chains via tighter 'Made in EU' rules and a proposed sovereignty premium to close its huge cost gap with Chinese batteries, even as Northvolt’s challenges reveal the fragility of this strategy. Simultaneously, the US and allies are scrambling to break dependence on China for rare earths, graphite and other inputs—reviving mines like Mountain Pass, backing new projects, and confronting resource nationalism such as Zimbabwe’s ban on raw mineral and lithium concentrate exports. Surging EV and grid-scale storage demand—set to push the EV market past $1 trillion by 2031 and lift aluminum and other transition metals—is also driving new financing structures and recycling policies from China’s battery storage ABS to Asian battery-reuse incentives, turning control over minerals and midstream processing into a central industrial and geopolitical battleground.