Diplomatic and Strategic Realignments

Syria's new president Al-Sharaa seeks security deal with Israel while firm on Golan. Oman mediates Hormuz deal (now rejected). Saudi forms Red Sea coalition. Lebanon's pilot zones tested by Hezbollah ceasefire violation (FPV drone strike on IDF vehicle) and IDF destruction of Hezbollah tunnel system. Accidental discovery of Hezbollah arms cache in Beirut. Hezbollah's Latin American network expands. Prediction markets show low odds of Hormuz normalization and US-Iran deal. These shifts reshape regional power balances.