Global Econ Insights

US Monetary Policy Developments

• 🔥 FOMC Holds Rates: New Fed Chair Kevin Warsh delivered a unanimous decision to leave policy rates unchanged...

• Warsh's first FOMC delivered a unanimous hold on rates while stressing inflation priority and less market hand-holding.
• Markets reacted sharply:...

Previous forecasts reflected crisis gloom:

• Euro area outlook clouded by Hormuz closure
• GDP growth cut to 0.9% for 2026

Peace agreement reverses...

• Iran peace deal: MOU signed ends conflict, triggering initial bounces in S&P, gold, and silver
• Hawkish Fed shift: Chair Warsh prioritizes 4%...

Citi raised India's FY27 GDP forecast to 6.9% from 6.6%, citing a $20/barrel drop in its 2026 crude price assumption that eases inflation and supports...

Strong headline growth masks a K-shaped economy where higher-income households drive most consumer spending while lower-income groups face rising...

Research on Artificial Intelligence and Macroeconomics/Econometrics has progressed steadily from 1975 through October 14, 2025.

US Housing and Consumer Data

• NAHB Housing Market Index: Current sales fell two points to 38 while expected sales held at 45, highlighting...

• Oil price declines post-deal are boosting US consumer sentiment, lifting the Michigan index to 48.9 from 44.8 as gasoline costs ease.
• Analysts...

The Reserve Bank of Australia published its official Monetary Policy Decision for June 2026 as a 37-minute video presentation. The content frames inflation management around family choices and policy trade-offs.

• Political pressure mounts as Trump pushes rate cuts while inflation stays above target and labor data stays strong.
• Independence question...

Fuel oil prices in Antwerp, Amsterdam, and Rotterdam are shaped by nonlinear, asymmetric, and regime-contingent macroeconomic and financial factors, revealing complex dynamics beyond standard linear models.

AI is reshaping markets through concentrated gains and massive infrastructure bets, forcing investors to prioritize resilience while exposing emerging...

A preliminary analysis shows US import tariffs triggering a significant reordering of competitiveness among trading partners in the US market, with clear implications for African economies.

US rate hikes driven by stronger domestic demand generate modestly positive spillovers for emerging markets, in contrast to exogenous policy shocks...

Trade policy certainty via CUSMA is vital to unlock business investment and productivity in Canada, where current uncertainty is delaying decisions and weighing on growth. Clear rules would give firms the confidence needed to expand and innovate.

Affordability challenges continue to suppress US housing demand, as shown by the NAHB index where current sales fell to 38 while six-month expectations remained flat at 45.

Green industrial policies are accelerating global supply chain restructuring via clean energy incentives, carbon reduction targets, EV subsidies, and sustainable manufacturing regulations.

Monetary Policy Shifts

• 🔥 UBS Fed Outlook Revision: UBS now forecasts no Fed rate cuts in 2026, with first easing expected in March or June...

India's macro and fixed income markets navigate easing oil prices and rupee stabilization alongside lingering domestic inflation concerns.

• External...