Rising and Falling Draft Stock for 2026 QB Prospects: The Latest Developments and Strategic Implications

As the 2026 NFL Draft approaches, the quarterback class continues to be one of the most dynamic and unpredictable groups. Every week, new evaluations, combine results, medical updates, coaching adjustments, and rumors reshape the landscape. Prospects who once seemed destined for early rounds may slip, while others emerge from obscurity thanks to standout performances or favorable reports. The ongoing fluidity underscores just how critical the final months are for teams, analysts, and fans trying to decipher who will rise or fall in this evolving draft market.

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The Combine, Pro Days, and Medicals: The Final Arbitrators

The NFL Scouting Combine (February 22 – March 2) and subsequent pro days serve as the pivotal moments for prospects to solidify or shift their draft standing. Athletic testing, medical evaluations, and direct interviews with teams provide the last, best opportunities for prospects to demonstrate their readiness.

• Athletic Metrics: Combine performances—such as 40-yard dash times, vertical leaps, shuttle drills, and arm strength—are scrutinized intensely. For example, a top-tier 40-yard dash or vertical jump can dramatically elevate a quarterback’s draft stock. Conversely, underwhelming results, especially in key athletic tests, can cause prospects to slide or be overlooked.

• Medical Evaluations: Injury history remains a red flag for many prospects. Fernando Mendoza’s ongoing shoulder issues continue to be a red flag, risking a steep fall or even elimination unless he can convincingly clear medical evaluations. On the other hand, prospects who demonstrate medical resilience, passing all health assessments, tend to stabilize or improve their standing.

• Interviews & On-Field Drills: Beyond raw athleticism, team interviews and on-field drills help evaluate football IQ, decision-making under pressure, leadership, and mental toughness. These intangible qualities are often decisive, especially for quarterbacks with similar athletic profiles.

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Key Developments Impacting Prospect Trajectories

1. Senior Bowl & All-Star Performances: Boosts and Setbacks

Performances at the Senior Bowl and other all-star showcases have continued to influence draft outlooks significantly:

• Diego Pavia: His standout Senior Bowl showing—characterized by decisive decision-making, mobility, and leadership—has elevated his profile. Despite concerns about his age and limited experience, his maturity and poise have made him a compelling mid-round target, especially for offenses emphasizing improvisation and athleticism.

• Ty Simpson: His improved athleticism and processing skills at the Senior Bowl, combined with a promising pro day, have pushed him into early-to-mid-round conversations. A strong combine showing—particularly excelling in speed, agility, and vertical leap—could rescue his stock, positioning him as a developmental quarterback with high upside.

2. The Combine & Pro Day Impact: Athleticism and Medicals as Tipping Points

The combine’s athletic metrics and medical results continue to be decisive:

• Ty Simpson: His draft status remains volatile, largely dependent on combine performance and medical evaluations. While athletic, questions about his processing speed and ability under pressure persist. An elite combine—such as top-tier 40-yard dash times and vertical jumps—could rescue his draft prospects, potentially placing him in Day 2. Conversely, subpar results might cause him to slip into late rounds or be overlooked.

• Fernando Mendoza: Despite a promising pro day showcasing leadership and arm strength, his shoulder injury remains a red flag. Unless medical evaluations clear him as fully healthy, he risks falling out of the draft entirely. However, his leadership qualities and arm talent keep him on teams’ radars, likely as a late-round pick or undrafted free agent.

3. Coaching Changes & Scheme Fit: New Offensive Philosophies

Recent offensive coordinator hirings and coaching staff changes are reshaping how prospects are valued:

• Frank Reich’s hiring as offensive coordinator for the New York Jets signals a preference for quarterbacks with mobility, quick decision-making, and improvisation—traits that favor athletic prospects like Simpson or others with high upside.

• Scheme fit has become increasingly crucial: quarterbacks whose playing styles align with new offensive philosophies are now more attractive. For example, prospects thriving in RPO-heavy or improvisational systems are seeing their stocks rise, while those with less adaptable skill sets are slipping.

4. League’s Defensive Emphasis: Indirect Effects on QB Valuation

The NFL’s ongoing emphasis on pass rushers and versatile defenders influences overall draft priorities:

• Teams are investing early in high-impact defensive prospects, sometimes at the expense of quarterbacks with red flags or less polish.
• This defensive focus raises the stakes for quarterbacks, making positional value more contested and complicating team strategies.

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Recent Developments and Rumors: Moving the Market

a) Steelers’ Interest in a Polarizing QB Prospect

Recent team-specific rumors suggest that the Pittsburgh Steelers have shown interest in a certain polarizing quarterback prospect. While details remain unconfirmed, this speculation has caused a buzz, potentially boosting his stock if Steelers see him as a developmental project or scheme fit. Conversely, such interest could also inflate expectations, prompting other teams to reevaluate the prospect’s true draft value.

b) Analyst Narratives and the Simpson-Pickett Comparison

In media and analyst circles, Ty Simpson has increasingly been compared to Kenny Pickett—a favorable comparison that some experts defend:

“I like Ty Simpson more than the narrative suggests,” said one NFL analyst. “He has a comparable size and mobility profile, and his arm talent is underrated. The key is whether he can improve his processing and decision-making under pressure.”

This shift—highlighting Simpson’s upside rather than dismissing him—has helped stabilize or even elevate his draft prospects. Some believe his skill set aligns well with the Jets’ new offensive approach under Frank Reich, emphasizing improvisation and quick reads.

c) Cardinals GM on QB Options: All Possibilities Open

Adding a new layer of uncertainty, Arizona Cardinals GM Monti Ossenfort recently stated that “all quarterback options remain on the table.” This broad stance indicates they are evaluating multiple paths—trading for a veteran, selecting a quarterback early, or waiting until later rounds—creating a flexible and unpredictable environment that could sway team strategies and prospect rankings.

d) Diego Pavia’s Age and Experience: A Double-Edged Sword

Recent insights highlight that while Pavia’s leadership and maturity are assets, his age and limited experience might hurt his draft stock. An article titled "Could Diego Pavia’s Draft Stock Be Hurt or Helped by His Age, Experience?" discusses how his JUCO background and late start in college could be perceived as negatives, despite his on-field talent. Nevertheless, his leadership qualities and football intelligence remain appealing to teams seeking mature backups or developmental prospects.

e) Drew Allar’s Combine Comeback

Penn State’s Drew Allar received positive news—he is cleared to throw at the Combine after recovering from ankle surgery. His ability to perform drills and showcase arm strength is expected to support his high-floor, developmental profile. A strong combine showing could cement his position as a top-tier quarterback in this class, especially given his size, poise, and potential.

f) Quarterbacks With the Most to Prove

A recent roundup, "Quarterbacks With the Most to Prove at the 2026 Combine: Carson Beck, Ty Simpson & More," emphasizes the critical nature of upcoming testing:

• Fernando Mendoza: Needs to demonstrate health and athleticism.
• Ty Simpson: Must prove processing speed and durability.
• Carson Beck: Looking to improve on inconsistent college tape through testing and interviews.
• Drew Allar: Aims to reinforce his high-floor, high-ceiling profile with a strong combine.

This grouping underscores which quarterbacks face pivotal moments in their evaluation process.

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Strategic Implications for Teams and Prospects

• Prioritize Medical Evaluations: Health remains paramount. Prospects like Mendoza and Simpson are particularly vulnerable to steep drops if testing or medical results are unfavorable.
• Assess Scheme Fit and Coaching Influence: The recent hiring of offensive-minded coaches, such as Reich, increases value for mobile, improvisational quarterbacks. Prospects aligning with these schemes are gaining ground.
• Leverage Athletic Testing: Exceptional combine performances can lead to late surges, while poor results may cause significant declines.
• Monitor Rumors & Narrative Trends: Team-specific whispers and analyst narratives increasingly influence projections, sometimes more than on-field performance.

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Current Status and Outlook

The 2026 quarterback class remains highly volatile, with stocks shifting weekly based on testing, medical updates, and rumors:

• Fernando Mendoza: Likely to slip further unless medical evaluations clear him; his leadership and arm talent keep him in late-round consideration or as a UDFA.
• Ty Simpson: His draft fate hinges on combine results. An elite athletic performance could elevate him into Day 2; a disappointing showing might cause him to fall late.
• Drew Allar: Continues to trend upward, supported by recent medical clearance and strong interviews. His size, poise, and developmental profile make him a high-floor option.
• Emerging Sleepers: Prospects excelling in athletic testing, medical evaluations, and interviews are gaining momentum, challenging current rankings and providing new late-round or mid-round options.

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The Road Ahead: Key Events and Their Impact

• Combine Testing & Medical Results: The next few weeks will be crucial. Elite performances can cause late risers, while injuries or underwhelming drills could lead to significant falls.
• Pro Day Showcases: These will further influence team evaluations, especially for prospects needing to improve their athletic profiles.
• Team Strategies & Rumors: Front offices’ signals—like the Steelers’ interest or the Cardinals’ openness—may be precursors to draft-day moves, including trades or early picks.

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Final Thoughts

The 2026 quarterback class exemplifies the unpredictable nature of draft evaluation. Every athletic test, medical report, and rumor can cause seismic shifts. Teams and analysts must remain adaptable, recognizing that every piece of new information—from combine results to coaching hires—can be pivotal.

As we inch closer to the draft, expect surprises: late risers, bold trades, and prospects exceeding expectations from the depths of rankings. Ultimately, nothing is set in stone until the final selection, and the true NFL careers of these quarterbacks will only begin once they step onto the field.

Stay tuned for ongoing updates as combine tests, medical evaluations, and team strategies continue to shape this compelling class.