Conflict Dynamics Tracker

2-week US/Israel/Iran ceasefire violated — Hormuz re-blocked, excludes Hezbollah

2-week US/Israel/Iran ceasefire violated — Hormuz re-blocked, excludes Hezbollah

Key Questions

What was the US/Israel/Iran ceasefire deal?

A fragile 2-week ceasefire was agreed upon involving Iran's SNSC, Islamabad/Pakistan, and Trump, excluding Hezbollah. It aimed to de-escalate tensions but was violated hours after IRGC acceptance. Enforcement against proxies, swarms, and nuclear talks remains doubtful.

What violations occurred shortly after the ceasefire?

IRGC conducted strikes on GCC targets, Israel barraged over 100 sites in Lebanon killing 254 people, and Iran re-blocked the Strait of Hormuz with a tanker. These actions strained the deal amid ongoing Israel-Hezbollah clashes. Lebanon tensions persist despite the agreement.

How did markets and regional actors react to the ceasefire?

Oil and equities rallied initially but turned volatile following violations. GCC nations welcomed the announcement, though other Middle East countries noted strains from Lebanon clashes. French President Macron urged US action amid the developments.

Fragile deal (Iran SNSC/Islamabad/Pakistan/Trump) hit hours post-acceptance by IRGC GCC strikes/Israel Lebanon barrage (100+ targets/254 dead)/Iran tanker block; GCC welcomes but Lebanon tensions; oil/equities rally then volatile; enforcement vs proxies/swarms/nuke talks doubtful. (first seen: 2026-04-21, last_updated: 2026-04-22)

Sources (2)
Updated Apr 9, 2026
What was the US/Israel/Iran ceasefire deal? - Conflict Dynamics Tracker | NBot | nbot.ai