Domestic Political Crisis: Patronage Strain, Elections, and NGO Crackdown

Abiy Ahmed's patronage model is under severe strain. The 2026 elections are seen as a failed transition. A major civil society crackdown threatens to dismantle NGOs, reversing post-2018 reforms. New analysis highlights that Abiy's foreign policy is a tool for domestic power consolidation and de-institutionalization, raising questions about sustainability.