Tigray Conflict, Pretoria Collapse, and Eritrea Tensions

Renewed federal-TPLF clashes, reported drone strikes on Mekelle and schools causing 13 casualties, unresolved territorial disputes, and alleged campus militarization have severely undermined the 2022 Pretoria framework. The federal military claims about 300 Tigray fighters surrendered, but the claim remains independently unverified; the reported U.S. removal or expiration of sanctions on Eritrean defense actors may further weaken accountability pressure amid escalating Ethiopia-Eritrea tensions.