Election Pulse

Recent surveys in key Senate races show varied leads but highlight close contests.

• Georgia: Ossoff (D) 54% vs Collins (R) 46%
• North Carolina:...

A northeastern Arizona congressional race is tightening as Republicans face headwinds in the midterms, signaling a more competitive local contest.

Nine days of early in-person voting begin Saturday at the Hillsdale County Courthouse.

• Races on the ballot: Leaders at local, state, and federal...

Thomas Miller's model starts with betting prices on Kalshi and Polymarket, adjusts them for bias, then runs time-series analysis to capture how...

Voters in key swing districts will weigh candidates' stated focuses on affordability, healthcare and security as they decide House and Senate...

The Supreme Court’s spring decision gutting the Voting Rights Act eliminated majority-Black districts nationwide, intensifying a redistricting battle...

Iowa governor race shattered prior records with $81 million combined for Sand and Lahn.

• Sand leads overall at $54.15 million versus Lahn's $26.94...

USPS cost-cutting has doubled or tripled late ballot rejections in rural counties across five states with grace periods.

• Eastern Washington rural...

A firm called Wedgewood admitted fabricating nearly all its election surveys after aggregator FiftyPlusOne flagged irregularities. It claimed the...

A federal court ruled the DOJ's push for full voter rolls from 49 states violates privacy laws and illegally intrudes on state control of elections....

In Wisconsin's governor race, Republican Tom Tiffany raised about $42 million since July 2025 - nearly four times Democrat David Crowley's $12 million...

Republican-led states passed over three dozen voting laws taking effect this year, many with elements of Trump's stalled federal proposals on voter ID...

Ramaswamy's attack ad featuring Amy Acton's estranged mother has split Republicans and prompted forecasters to move the race toward Acton.

• Cook...

Economic pressures on working families are turning Ohio competitive again in the midterms.

• Governor and Senate races rated toss-ups by Cook...

Housing affordability tops New York voter concerns ahead of midterms, showing up directly in everyday budgets.

• Luxury rents: New downtown condos in...

The Supreme Court struck down federal caps on spending by political groups in June, delivering Republicans key campaign-finance wins this year. Voters should watch for increased outside spending in key races as a result.

• Benson raised over $4.1 million from Aug. 25-Oct. 18 compared to James' $3.9 million
• Campaign totals: Benson nearly $16.7 million versus James'...

If Democrats gain House or Senate control, health care tops their agenda despite slim odds of major change under President Trump.

• Past stalled...

Small leads often signal toss-ups, not clear advantages, when they fall inside the margin of error.

• Sample size and likely-voter screens directly...

• Cook shifted 19 House races toward Democrats with no counter-moves for Republicans, reflecting poor Trump approval and strong generic ballot leads...