Weak US data and rising inflation expectations fuel gold rally

Retail Sales slump and UMich sentiment miss (51) with rising inflation expectations (3.3% 1-yr, 2.8% 5-yr) reinforce stagflation narrative. Fed September hike odds drop to 33%. Gold rallied to $4,386 then pulled back to $4,330, but now holds $4,400 support on profit-taking. ETF outflows concentrated in March/June—excluding those, H1 net inflows. Stagflation fears support gold's decoupling from rate expectations.