Silver COMEX/squeeze/Asia demand
Key Questions
What drove silver above $62 recently?
Silver surged to $62.40 after the weak June jobs report reduced rate-hike odds. It has reclaimed the $60 level with structural deficits and physical demand supporting prices.
Why are COMEX silver inventories so low?
COMEX inventories have halved to 136 million ounces amid a deepening structural deficit. Lease rates above 8% reflect tight physical market conditions.
What impact does China's silver policy have on supply?
China reclassified silver as a strategic resource with export restrictions, creating a physical bottleneck. This has tightened global supply and supported prices.
What are analysts' price targets for silver?
JPMorgan sees $70 support and $84 resistance while Commerzbank and HSBC remain bullish. Michael Oliver highlights a potential breakout above $62.89 targeting $83 or $120.
How does the gold-silver ratio signal opportunity?
The gold-silver ratio at 68.6:1 indicates silver may catch up to gold. Physical buying continues while derivatives have driven recent price swings.
What is the significance of the new Abaxx silver contract?
Abaxx launched a physically deliverable silver futures contract in Singapore as an Asian benchmark. This addresses demand for regional pricing amid Asia's growing influence.
What is KGHM's expansion plan for silver?
KGHM announced an $8.55 billion expansion targeting 1,290 tonnes of annual silver output by 2030. The project signals major future supply growth and Poland's energy sovereignty push.
Is silver's recent retreat a reversal or pause?
Silver's pullback appears as a pause rather than reversal given the intact structural deficit. Institutional forecasts remain positive with strong physical buying from stackers and industry.
Silver surged to $62.40 on June jobs miss, reclaiming $60. Structural deficit deepens: COMEX inventories halved to 136M oz, lease rates above 8%. China reclassified silver as strategic resource, export restrictions causing physical bottleneck. Abaxx Silver Singapore Futures contract launched as physically deliverable Asian benchmark. Silver's retreat seen as a pause, not reversal, with structural deficit intact. Institutional forecasts: JPMorgan sees $70 support, $84 resistance; Commerzbank and HSBC also bullish. Physical buying continues; derivatives drove recent swings. Gold-silver ratio at 68.6:1 signals potential catch-up. New supply-side development: KGHM's $8.55B expansion plan targeting 1,290 tonnes silver annually through 2030, a major signal for future silver supply and energy sovereignty in Poland. Michael Oliver adds tactical layer: weekly close above $62.89 is key for a potential vertical breakout to $83 or $120, warning of a violent upside phase ahead.