Central bank and sovereign-driven gold accumulation, de‑dollarization, and the resulting gold rally in 2025–2026

Sovereign Gold Accumulation

The transformation of the global monetary system continues to accelerate into the latter half of 2026, driven decisively by sovereign gold accumulation, strategic de-dollarization, and mounting strains within bullion market infrastructure. Recent developments underscore gold’s entrenched role as both a safe-haven asset and a strategic reserve cornerstone amid persistent geopolitical tensions, sticky inflationary pressures, and evolving market dynamics. As bullion prices hover in the mid-$5,000s per ounce, the interplay between sovereign actions, private capital flows, and market mechanics reveals a complex, multipolar monetary landscape reshaping the global reserve paradigm.

Sovereign Gold Accumulation Remains the Rally’s Structural Backbone

Central banks and sovereign actors continue to anchor the gold rally through aggressive bullion purchases and portfolio diversification away from U.S. dollar assets, reinforcing a steady momentum that has persisted for over 18 months.

China’s People’s Bank of China (PBOC) sustains its disciplined buying program, acquiring over 600,000 ounces monthly. This consistent accumulation reflects Beijing’s strategic intent to hedge dollar exposure while bolstering the RMB’s international role amid a shifting multipolar monetary order.
The expanded BRICS coalition, now incorporating heavyweight resource economies like Saudi Arabia and Argentina, controls approximately 70% of global sovereign gold and silver reserves. Their collective pivot away from U.S. Treasuries into physical bullion epitomizes a deepening de-dollarization trend aimed at enhancing monetary sovereignty and insulating reserve portfolios from dollar-centric systemic risks.
Russia, despite occasional tactical bullion sales to alleviate sanction-induced fiscal pressures, maintains a formidable gold reserve valued near $1.7 trillion, underscoring gold’s centrality to its monetary sovereignty and geopolitical leverage.
Emerging economies are innovating reserve management models. The Democratic Republic of Congo’s mines-to-vaults program exemplifies this trend by channeling artisanal and formal gold production directly into central bank reserves, strengthening resource nationalism and institutional reserve governance. This program offers a compelling template for other resource-rich nations seeking diversified, gold-backed reserve strategies.
Contrasting this growth, Lebanon’s ongoing deliberations over partial liquidation of its $45 billion gold stockpile highlight the fragility of bullion sovereignty under acute economic distress, illustrating the tension between immediate liquidity needs and long-term reserve preservation.

Bullion Market Infrastructure Under Intensifying Pressure

The surge in sovereign and industrial bullion demand has exacerbated systemic vulnerabilities, manifesting as pricing fragmentation, delivery bottlenecks, and operational disruptions:

Silver market fragmentation remains acute. Leading miners such as First Majestic Silver and Hecla Mining increasingly reject traditional COMEX benchmark prices, opting instead to sell physical silver at substantial premiums in Asian and local markets. This behavior reflects tight physical supply and growing dislocations between paper and physical silver markets.
The COMEX warehouse network faces heightened liquidity strains, especially in silver deliveries. Declining vault inventories in both China and the U.S. have led to frequent delivery bottlenecks, localized shortages, and elevated price volatility.
Operational disruptions have exposed infrastructure fragility. In February 2026, the CME Group suspended trading across silver, gold, and natural gas derivatives on its Globex platform due to technical difficulties arising from unprecedented volumes and complex options flows. This event underscored limit conditions within existing trading systems amid surging market activity.
The February 2026 CME Metals Options Report highlights persistent tightness in gold and copper markets, with platinum showing resilience amid policy uncertainties. Elevated open interest and concentrated options positioning contribute to heightened price sensitivity, amplifying the potential for sharp volatility spikes.

Geopolitical Tensions and Macro Uncertainties Reinforce Safe-Haven Demand

Gold’s safe-haven appeal remains robust amid a fraught geopolitical landscape and sticky inflation:

Renewed Middle East hostilities, particularly the escalating U.S.-Iran nuclear standoff, have intensified capital flows into gold. Investors seek the liquidity and security bullion offers, sustaining prices firmly above $5,200 per ounce and pushing monthly highs even higher.
Domestic economic pressures compound this environment. Slowing U.S. growth alongside persistently sticky core inflation, especially within Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE), foster a risk-off sentiment favorable to bullion accumulation.
Recent market commentary and price action affirm gold’s sustained positive bias:
- Spot gold prices recently settled near $5,171 per ounce following mixed U.S. jobless claims data, reflecting continued sensitivity to macroeconomic indicators.
- Ahead of anticipated U.S.-Iran diplomatic talks, gold prices have edged upward on safe-haven bids, bolstered by a softer U.S. dollar and heightened geopolitical uncertainty.
- Analysts at UBS and J.P. Morgan remain bullish, projecting gold to reach $6,200–$6,300 per ounce by mid to late 2026, with silver expected to surge toward $150 per ounce amid ongoing safe-haven demand and constrained physical supply.
- Goldman Sachs characterizes recent slowdowns in central bank gold buying as “temporary,” expecting sovereign purchases to resume their upward trajectory and drive prices toward $5,400 per ounce by year-end.

Silver Market Turmoil: Retail Frenzy and Structural Dislocations

The silver market remains a focal point of disruption and volatility:

Early 2026 witnessed an extraordinary retail-driven silver short squeeze in Shanghai, where physical silver prices nearly doubled to $95 per ounce, far exceeding global benchmarks. This event sent reverberations throughout the global market, with silver prices peaking at $53.55 per ounce, the highest level in 45 years.
The widening gap between physical silver prices and COMEX benchmarks has prompted miners to bypass traditional exchanges, exacerbating pricing fragmentation and liquidity risks.
Silver derivatives markets have grown increasingly complex and risk-laden, as reflected in elevated open interest and skewed options positioning, heightening the potential for further volatility.

Mining Sector and Private Capital Poised for Expansion

Private capital and mining companies are capitalizing on the gold rally’s momentum, with strong earnings and strategic repositioning:

The VanEck Gold Miners ETF (GDX) continues to attract investor interest, with major producers such as AngloGold Ashanti tripling profits in 2025, fueled by record high gold prices and reserve expansions.
Junior miners, tracked by the GDXJ ETF, have outperformed seniors recently, surging 5.81%, reflecting growing retail and speculative interest in exploration and development plays.
Merger and acquisition activity, alongside elevated capital expenditures, signal a potential “golden age” for mining, supported by sustained insider buying and bullish investor sentiment.
Aura Minerals, a key junior player, is poised to release earnings soon, with unanimous buy ratings from analysts. The results will be closely watched as a barometer of the sector’s growth narrative amid the ongoing rally.
Industry thought leaders, including Christopher Gannatti and Rick Rule, emphasize the evolving investor landscape amid geopolitical and macroeconomic uncertainty, reinforcing a medium-term bullish outlook for gold and silver.

Sovereign Divergences and Institutional Innovation Reflect Evolving Reserve Strategies

While sovereign bullion accumulation broadly underpins the rally, nuanced divergences and innovative approaches are emerging:

Russia’s episodic bullion sales remain tactical responses to fiscal pressures without undermining its overarching goal of gold-backed monetary sovereignty.
Lebanon’s potential gold reserve liquidation underscores the limits of bullion sovereignty in extreme economic distress, highlighting difficult fiscal trade-offs.
The DRC’s mines-to-vaults program exemplifies innovative institutional integration of artisanal gold production into sovereign reserves, enhancing resource nationalism and offering a replicable model for emerging economies pursuing monetary autonomy through gold.

Toward a Multipolar, Gold-Anchored Monetary Order

The convergence of record sovereign gold accumulation, bullion market strains, geopolitical volatility, and private sector dynamism signals a profound reshaping of the global monetary architecture:

The historic concentration of gold and silver reserves within China and the expanded BRICS coalition steadily undermines the dollar’s dominance as the global reserve currency.
Sovereign commitments to physical bullion custody and direct control redefine monetary sovereignty, despite operational and liquidity challenges.
Market infrastructure stresses—including pricing fragmentation, delivery bottlenecks, and trading interruptions—expose vulnerabilities that highlight both gold’s strategic importance and the fragility of existing market mechanisms.
Embedding gold within national security frameworks and industrial supply chains further institutionalizes its role as a cornerstone of geopolitical and economic resilience.
Market disruptions—from the Shanghai silver short squeeze to miners’ rejection of COMEX pricing and CME trading halts—reflect a complex interplay among sovereign actors, retail investors, and speculators, consolidating bullion’s role as a premier flight-to-safety asset.
Sovereign divergences reveal growing institutional sophistication and fiscal pragmatism, particularly among resource-rich emerging markets, fostering a more multipolar and gold-anchored reserve system.

Conclusion

As 2026 advances, the global monetary order is unmistakably pivoting toward a multipolar, gold-anchored system underpinned by sovereign bullion accumulation and de-dollarization. Gold’s price resilience—currently in the mid-$5,000s per ounce range—with forecasts targeting beyond $6,000, reflects persistent geopolitical and macroeconomic uncertainties. This historic rally unfolds amid acute bullion market infrastructure strains, pricing fragmentation, and operational challenges, signaling a complex transition fraught with both significant opportunity and risk.

Complementing sovereign dynamics, private capital inflows and mining sector expansions underscore the rally’s breadth and depth, while institutional innovations such as the DRC’s mines-to-vaults program illustrate evolving gold governance models. Collectively, these forces herald a new monetary paradigm in which gold transcends its traditional safe-haven status to become a strategic anchor of a reshaped global reserve system.

This updated analysis synthesizes the latest sovereign reserve behaviors, bullion market disruptions, geopolitical developments, and private-sector dynamics, illustrating how their interplay continues to redefine the trajectory of the global monetary system throughout 2025 and 2026.

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