Kalshi Edge Signals

Today's Key Releases

• ⚡ FOMC, PPI, Oil Inventories: FOMC decision, PPI inflation data, FOMC statement, and crude oil inventories are due...

Oil/Iran pressures solidify Fed hold odds amid energy crisis and conflict:

• Key catalysts today: FOMC statement, PPI, crude inventories at 1PM ET –...

• Brent crude falls 1.2% to $102.22 from $106+ Monday, despite Iran barrage.
• Pullback from highs signals mid-curve test; transient dip may ignore energy risks.
• Kalshi edge: Watch inflation/recession contracts for repricing on overlooked relief.

Huge liquidity in niche geo-political markets despite Trump's 'pretty much over' claim:

• $580M+ traded across Kalshi/Polymarket on Iran contracts –...

Kalshi Regulatory Risks

• 🔥 Arizona Criminal Charges: Arizona's attorney general filed criminal charges against Kalshi for illegal election...

Contrasting oil views signal potential Kalshi inflation edges:

• Despite less reliance, elevated oil adds CPI pressure and risks reacceleration
• TD...

99% odds Fed holds rates steady tomorrow, spotlight on Powell tone and dot plot.

• Oil/war risks (Iran conflict) fuel inflation worries amid weak...

• Explosive growth: Revenue up 11x in 6 months, $700M trading spike vs $1B valuation.
• Sports liquidity leader: Event contracts project $1.3B...

• Dashboard strongly green: Recession odds pretty low now
• Despite geopolitical conflict
• Kalshi play: Buy recession tails for convex upside if oil/geo flips green signals

Kalshi edge setup amid FOMC and Iran risks:

• Gold trading near $5,000
• Markets assess FOMC outlook with softer USD
• Kharg Island oil disruption risks persist
  Hedge play: Gold safe-haven vs rate/inflation contracts if repricing hits.

• Regulatory hammer drops: Arizona AG filed criminal charges against Kalshi for illegal election betting – platform stability in question.
• Liquidity...

• Oil slips to start week, but traders bet $100+ WTI by Friday
• Many Kalshi participants anticipate crude climb in coming days
• Tomorrow >$96.99 settle market active
• Friday < $93 contract available – watch bulls vs. bears for short-term edge

Divergent FOMC views prime mispricings post-Dot Plot:

• Hawkish hold dominant: Near-100% odds on no cut amid Iran oil shock (>$100/bbl, Hormuz...

Fed-endorsed validation: Kalshi prediction markets are as good, if not better, than traditional methods for economic indicators.

• Trading edge:...

Feb CPI rose 0.3% MoM, holding 2.4% YoY, with rising housing, food, energy prices. Dovish headline masks sticky internals and core trends – Kalshi inflation thresholds likely undervalue persistence ahead of FOMC.

Kalshi Legal & Liquidity Updates

• 🔥 Kalshi Sues Arizona: Kalshi sues Arizona using the same CFTC oversight arguments and near-identical language...

Media traction boosts PMs: Kalshi and Polymarket drive prediction markets into full-time Business Insider coverage.

• Regulatory scrutiny ramps up:...

Liquidity edge for Kalshi traders sizing positions:

• On-chain prediction market fees underestimated; taker trades generated $118M based on data and...

Escalating US-Iran war disrupts oil flows, creating upside skew in Kalshi oil, inflation, recession markets:

• Trump demands Hormuz help: Urges allies...

Hotter CPI print flags short-term upside in Kalshi inflation contracts:

• Food +0.4% MoM (up from Jan 0.2%): Persistent grocery climb
• Headline +0.3%...