Latin America in 2026: The Epicenter of Great-Power Competition and Technological Warfare

As 2026 unfolds, Latin America firmly cements its position as a pivotal battleground in the global contest among great powers. Its rich natural resources, strategic location, and volatile political landscape have made it a nexus for influence, resource control, and technological warfare. The region is now a microcosm of the broader multipolar world order, where traditional diplomacy is supplanted by hybrid tactics that blend covert operations, economic statecraft, and AI-enabled influence campaigns.

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The New Geopolitical Paradigm: Hybrid Warfare Dominates

From Old Strategies to Complex, Multifaceted Tactics

By mid-2026, the limitations of conventional military interventions and sanctions have become evident. Major powers have pivoted toward hybrid warfare, deploying a sophisticated mix of clandestine operations, economic maneuvers, disinformation, and soft power to influence regional outcomes.

• Covert and Military Operations: Reports confirm escalating clandestine activities, including surprise military strikes aimed at destabilizing regimes aligned with China and Russia. Notably, infrastructure sabotage in Venezuela and detentions of regime figures like Nicolás Maduro signal efforts to weaken pro-Chinese and pro-Russian governments, while establishing footholds in resource-rich countries such as Bolivia.

• Economic Resilience and Sanctions Evasion: Despite Western sanctions, Chinese firms are leveraging sophisticated evasion techniques to maintain and expand investments. Infrastructure projects—pipelines, trade corridors, and energy facilities—serve to secure resource access and counter Western influence. These efforts are complemented by multibillion-dollar infrastructure deals that integrate regional economies into China's Belt and Road Initiative.

• Disinformation and Soft Power Warfare: The U.S. has intensified influence efforts, but China’s soft power apparatus has gained ground. Beijing deploys economic diplomacy, social media influence, and disinformation campaigns—particularly targeting Latin American social platforms—to craft narratives that undermine Western policies and promote Chinese interests. Recent disinformation campaigns focus on Taiwan sovereignty and regional pro-Western stances, sowing discord and polarization.

China’s Expanding Footprint: Infrastructure, Diplomacy, and Strategic Alliances

China’s engagement deepens across multiple fronts:

• Massive Infrastructure and Energy Projects: Chinese state-owned enterprises dominate oil extraction, refining, and transportation infrastructure in Venezuela, Argentina, and Brazil. These projects aim to lock in resource access, develop regional trade routes, and reduce dependency on Western markets.

• Diplomatic Outreach and Cultural Influence: Initiatives like the China-Latin America Cooperation Forum foster bilateral agreements, aid programs, and cultural exchanges that sidestep Western-led institutions. These efforts align regional states with Beijing’s strategic objectives.

• Cooperation with Iran: Exploiting sanctions gaps, China has bolstered energy and military cooperation with Iran, especially in oil and financial sectors, to preserve energy flows and expand influence in geopolitically sensitive regions. The recent report titled "Oil, Influence, Silence | China Profits As US Disrupts Iran & Venezuela" underscores how China capitalizes on sanctions to amplify its regional influence.

Russia–China Alliance: A Strategic Partnership

The Russia–China alliance continues to strengthen through joint military exercises, economic initiatives, and diplomatic coordination, designed to bypass Western sanctions and support authoritarian regimes across Latin America. This partnership emboldens anti-Western governments, further complicating Western efforts to promote democracy and regional stability, and fostering a multipolar order with fierce regional influence battles.

US–Iran Diplomatic Dynamics

Recent developments reveal renewed US–Iran negotiations, with Tehran strategically leveraging diplomatic channels to expand influence in Latin America. Iran’s growing cooperation with Venezuela and Bolivia—covering energy, military, and financial sectors—aims to circumvent sanctions and forge alternative alliances. As Ian Bremmer highlights in his analysis, Iran is using diplomacy as a strategic tool to deepen its regional footprint, despite ongoing Western pressures.

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Technological Warfare: AI-Enabled Influence and Global Norms

AI Tools and Social Media Campaigns Shape Regional Discourse

The technological landscape has become central to influence efforts:

• AI-powered Disinformation: Tools like “AI Eye” enable rapid, convincing disinformation campaigns—making influence operations more covert, scalable, and resistant to detection. These tools amplify pro-China narratives, undermine U.S. policies, and deepen regional confusion.

• Social Media Manipulation: Coordinated influence campaigns target Latin American social platforms, amplifying Chinese content and fueling polarization. Sensitive issues such as Taiwan recognition versus China’s sovereignty claims often become focal points, destabilizing political discourse and democratic processes.

• Election Interference: Notably, in Paraguay, Chinese influence networks are actively targeting electoral processes to shift regional loyalties and block recognition of Taiwan, thereby deepening regional divisions and weakening democratic norms.

International AI Governance and the Global Tech Race

In 2026, AI governance has emerged as a contested terrain. The AI Summit in New Delhi saw the US, China, and Russia endorse a new “AI for All” declaration, promoting regulatory frameworks under the guise of global cooperation. However, these agreements often serve strategic interests, with China and Russia using such forums to shape norms favoring technological sovereignty and cyber influence.

Deep-Sea Mining: The Next Frontier

A rising frontier in resource competition is deep-sea mining, particularly along Latin America’s Pacific and Atlantic coasts. Countries and private corporations are racing to secure access to seabed mineral deposits, vital for AI hardware, renewable energy infrastructure, and electronics. This emerging battleground raises environmental concerns and questions over sovereignty and resource rights, further complicating regional geopolitics.

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Implications and Strategic Responses

Latin America faces unprecedented pressures on multiple fronts:

• Security Risks: Covert operations, influence campaigns, and resource manipulation threaten regional stability and democratic resilience.

• Economic Challenges: Sanctions evasion and infrastructure dependencies risk long-term economic vulnerabilities. Countries like Venezuela and Bolivia become test cases for influence networks.

• Technological Vulnerabilities: AI-driven disinformation and election interference threaten the integrity of democratic processes.

To address these challenges, regional actors and allies should prioritize:

• Strengthening regional cooperation—through security alliances and economic integration—to counter external influence.

• Enhancing digital literacy and cybersecurity capacities to detect and counter disinformation.

• Diversifying partnerships to reduce overreliance on any single external power.

• Improving intelligence-sharing and technological surveillance to monitor influence operations.

• Promoting economic resilience via alternative trade routes and resource diversification.

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Current Status and Future Outlook

Latin America remains at a geopolitical crossroads. Its vast resource wealth, strategic location, and political volatility make it a key front in the evolving multipolar contest. The technological arms race, marked by AI influence campaigns, deep-sea resource competition, and global governance debates, continues to escalate.

Major powers are deploying AI-enabled influence tools to sway public opinion, interfere in elections, and shape regional narratives. Meanwhile, regional states grapple with external pressures and internal vulnerabilities. The recent renewed US–Iran diplomacy, combined with China’s expanding influence and Russia’s strategic partnership with Beijing, underscores a multi-layered competition.

The decisions made now—regarding diplomacy, technological resilience, and resource management—will determine Latin America’s sovereignty and stability for decades. Vigilance, strategic foresight, and regional unity are essential to navigate this complex landscape, as the region strives to safeguard its future amidst an increasingly contested, multipolar world.