USMCA Non-Renewal and Escalating Trade Tariffs

US declined USMCA renewal, triggering 16-year countdown. New 50% Section 338 tariffs on Canadian autos, alcohol, and dairy—legally robust after Supreme Court defeat, more targeted than previous IEEPA tariffs. IEEPA refunds progressing ($86.3B disbursed). Protectionist stance citing rising deficits ($197B with Mexico) and stricter rules of origin. Tariffs already raised consumer prices; this escalates uncertainty and supply chain disruption. Will bilateral deals emerge? How will Canada/Mexico respond? Important for inflation and trade policy.